Canadian beekeepers are abuzz with speculation that honey prices could climb to $1.10 per pound before the end of the year.
The speculation is prompted by provisional anti-dumping duties on imports of Argentine and Chinese honey that were imposed by the United States Department of Commerce last month.
The move is expected to increase the price of Argentine and Chinese honey sold into the U.S. by at least 40 percent.
That’ s considered good news for Canadian beekeepers because prices for their honey tend to follow U.S. prices.
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“I’ m told Canadian producers are holding honey in anticipation of better prices,” said Dave Pearen, a market development officer with Agriculture Canada.
Honey prices in Canada have been rising since last fall and have now topped 90 cents a lb., which is the highest they have been since 1998.
But Pearen said the price improvement cannot all be credited to the U.S. duties.
Honey supplies are low in Canada, partly due to a smaller harvest last year.
The drought in Alberta has created uncertainty about how much honey will be produced there this year. Alberta usually produces about a third of the nation’ s supply.
“All of those things are combining to drive the market,” Pearen said.
“I don’ t think it’ s just one thing.”
Saskatchewan Agriculture apiculturist John Gruszka said there is little doubt that honey prices will continue to rise. The question is by how much.
China and Argentina may try to sell more honey into Canada, which does not have the same import barriers.
China and Argentina may also start selling more product into the European Union. Canada sells high-quality honey to the EU at premium prices.
As well, Gruszka said the U.S. loan deficiency payment program has depressed prices in the past and will likely continue to have some influence.
“The balance between these forces will determine prices, and the best guess at the outcome is merely speculative,” he said in a Saskatchewan Agriculture report earlier this month.
In an interview, Gruszka said Saskatchewan producers were anxious a year ago because honey prices barely covered production costs, which have risen 40 percent in the last eight years.
The current price outlook will help restore optimism.
“We needed it,” Gruszka said.
“There’ s no question our costs have risen significantly.”
There will be a final determination this fall of the injury caused to U.S. honey producers by low-priced honey imported from China and Argentina.
A more permanent anti-dumping levy will be decided at that time.
Last fall, the American Honey Producers Association and the Sioux Honey Association filed unfair trade action charges against Argentina and China.
Their complaints led to the commerce department investigation and the provisional anti-dumping duties.
A group of Canadian beekeepers supported the trade action by contributing more than $32,000 to the AHPA legal fund.
The Canadian Honey Council wants the Canadian Food Inspection Agency to keep close tabs on honey imports to Canada.
The council is concerned that Canada could become a dumping ground for honey as China and Argentina look for more markets outside of the U.S., said Heather Clay, the council’ s national co-ordinator.
“It would not surprise me. They need to sell it somewhere.”
