BRANDON, Man. – If you thought this year was an interesting one for barley, hold on tight. Industry speakers at a recent barley conference say the next five years could be fascinating.
The changes will start with the producer. Jack Tye, a barley selector with Canada Malting, said transportation changes will directly affect who grows the crop.
“We’re getting varieties grown in areas where they really shouldn’t be grown,” Tye said.
Al Morris, United Grain Growers manager of quality control, said that since 1986, acres planted with two-row barley have been increasing while those planted with six-row have been dropping.
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He thinks this trend will reverse when producers start paying full rail freight next year.
Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan will become the most economical places to grow barley for the U.S. market. And because maltsters there use six-row varieties, that’s what producers here will be growing.
Tye noted that because barley is locked into many producers’ rotations, it will still be grown across the Prairies for a couple of years.
The U.S. is a good customer: its barley acres are decreasing, but its demand is staying strong.
However, the Canadian Wheat Board tends to favor selling barley to offshore markets that pay higher prices, but are not necessarily steady customers.
“The U.S. always needs our barley, so … there’s opportunities that we’re missing, and still at a pretty good price,” Morris said, adding he thinks many maltsters there would buy part of next year’s requirements now if the price was lower.
Tye said China and Latin America will also become more important markets in the next five years because as their economies improve, beer consumption is rising.
On the other hand, industry speakers said the domestic market has mature and “it’s not a real growth industry,” Tye said.
Microbreweries and brew pubs are the only areas where the market is growing, said Tye.
“Although they’re just sort of a little mosquito on the back of the elephant right now, I think people are starting to take note of what they’re doing.”
Cater to brew pubs
Jim Anderson of Molson Breweries said both major brewers are hoping to cater to people who like brew pubs with signature beers.
Microbreweries look for distinctive malts, and Tye said the industry will have to respond.
“I think that all this really does is emphasize the fact that we can’t live with one or two (barley) varieties,” Tye said. “We should have a lot of varieties on the shelf. We should be able to make different types of malts from these varieties and offer the malts to these different customers because the market is becoming very segmented.”
