WINNIPEG (MarketsFarm) — Australia’s canola crop will be much smaller than originally thought, with further reductions possible, according to the latest estimate from the Australian Oilseeds Federation (AOF).
Total canola production in the country is now forecast at 1.896 million tonnes, which compares with the projection at the beginning of the growing season in July of 2.405 million tonnes and the year-ago level of 2.310 million tonnes.
“The climatic conditions for most of the growing regions deteriorated during spring, which resulted in a further reduction in harvested volume projections,” said the AOF in the report.
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“There is expected to be more downside than upside as failing crops continue to be cut for hay.”
A number of days of very hot weather during pod fill was also expected to reduce oil content, particularly in Western Australia, according to the report.
Total production in eastern Australia was still expected to be up slightly on the year, but well below earlier forecasts due to reductions in anticipated yields and harvested acres.
All canola-growing regions in the country experienced below average rainfall. Crops in the states of Victoria and South Australia had stored soil moisture to draw on, but southern New South Wales crops have no reserves so yields for cereals and oilseeds will be low.
Chinese demand for Australian canola was reportedly stronger this year, which will likely provide some price support, according to the AOF.
