WINNIPEG – Canada’s federal agriculture department says production of grains and oilseeds could fall by almost 10 percent in 2001-02 because of hot, dry weather damage.
In its latest grains and oilseeds outlook, Agriculture Canada forecast overall production to decline to 56 million tonnes compared to 62 million tonnes produced in the last crop year.
“Crop conditions across much of Saskatchewan and southern Alberta continued to deteriorate during July, due to hot dry weather,” the forecast said.
“Although rainfall has been received recently in many areas, it arrived too late in many cases to reverse the damage, although it will help the crops during the filling stage.”
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Despite excess moisture that was received in parts of Manitoba earlier in the summer, federal crop experts said the hot weather in July would likely normalize yields.
Canola production is pegged at 5.14 million tonnes, a slide of 28 percent and the lowest level since 1996-97, attributed to an 18 percent reduction in harvested area and an expected decline in yield.
Industry and government reports have said many farmers did not plant canola because of concerns about drought and high fertilizer costs.
Government analysts said the sharp reduction in canola carry-in stocks and production would lead to a 32 percent drop in supplies.
“Domestic crush is expected to decrease due to tight supplies and low crush margins,” said the report. It also anticipated a decrease in canola exports to China, one of Canada’s largest customers, because of lower supplies and higher prices.
Canada’s wheat production, excluding durum, is forecast to fall by 15 percent to 18 million tonnes, the lowest production since the late 1980s.
Agriculture Canada said this reduction would be partly offset by higher carry-in stocks, and an expected eight percent drop in exports to 12 million tonnes.
“Feed (wheat) use is expected to decline due to tight supplies,” the crop production outlook said.
The upcoming durum crop is forecast to fall 32 percent to 3.8 million tonnes, the lowest level since 1993-94.
Durum exports are expected to rise by 13 percent due to continuing strong world demand fueled by poor crops in Algeria and southern Europe. An anticipated 57 percent increase in durum carry-in stocks will help offset the lower production.
Canada is expected to produce 12.45 million tonnes of barley, eight percent less than last year, due to yields, lower seeded area and relatively high forage use, the department said.
Flax production is pegged to rise 25 percent over last year to 866,000 tonnes, because of a higher harvested area. Despite the larger supply, flax prices are forecast to rise by 15 percent as production falls within the European and Canadian exports to the EU return to normal levels.
“The major features to watch are growing conditions in the major importing and exporting regions, China’s accession to the WTO and the Canada-U.S. exchange rate,” Agriculture Canada analysts said.
