HUGE ENDING STOCKS, GRIM OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN PRICES: BILL TIERNEY OF AGRESOURCE
Bill Tierney of AgResource painted a grim picture of the vegoil outlook. Huge world ending stocks of vegoils means there’s not much upside for vegetable oil prices, Tierney said. But also not much downside after dropping so much in value. But 24 percent ending stocks is the biggest recorded.
Tierney sees big downside in soybean meal prices though, especially after the rally of the last few days.
What happens if South America gets a big crop and the U.S. grows another big crop?
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Land crash warning rejected
A technical analyst believes that Saskatchewan land values could be due for a correction, but land owners and FCC say supply/demand fundamentals drive land prices – not mathematical models
For the winter, March futures could drop to $8.50 and fall 2015 prices to $7.00 or below.
Yikes!!
LOW QUALITY WHEAT IN EU TOO: LEO PLAISIER OF AGRIBROKERS
Western Canada isn’t alone in having a lot of downgraded, feed quality wheat. Europe has lots too, Leo Plaisier of Agribrokers said.
BRAZIL: STAGFLATION BUT A GOOD FUTURE Pedro Dejneka of AgResource in Brazil said his country is presently suffering stagflation, a dire economic situation, after misinvesting by the government in recent years. Grain transportation snarls are worse than ever and it’s making production expansion a challenge. But huge new acreages can be brought into cropping from pastureland, Dejneka said. If ports can be built around the north and east of the country farmers from Mato Grosso will have much quicker and cheaper way to get to the coast – and China. So the long term future of Brazilian farming is bright, but the present situation is frustrating. Dejneka said the North American markets are taking early reports of dryness in Brazil far too seriously. It’s too soon to matter, the problem usually goes away, and slightly delayed seeding does not appear to affect Brazilian yields. “Planting is going just fine in Brazil.” SCOTT YUKNIS, CLIMATE IMPACT CO Here’s what I got from Scott Yuknis of Climate Impact Co.’s weather outlook for Western Canada: 1) Warmer than average winter; 2) Winter precipitation normal; 3) March-April-May wet for southern Alberta and for Saskatchewan and Manitoba; 4) April-May-June will be warmer than average; 5) Summer should be unusually cool. Here’s his summary slide 
Oh, and by 2016-18 “unforecasted extreme events” like “harsh drought” of three to four years are likely to hit – somewhere in the world.
