Global wheat trade is expected to at least double by 2050, says a new report from a U.S. wheat group.
The increase will occur even if total global consumption merely keeps pace with the expected 40 percent increase in population.
The analysis, prepared by Chad Weigand, a market analyst for U.S. Wheat Associates (USWA), includes population and consumption data from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.
It projects wheat demand in importing regions and compares that with projected increases in local wheat production.
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“The result was the rather startling conclusion that world wheat trade, which has been static for most of the last two decades, is expected to rise dramatically over the next 30 years,” said the report, published in the latest USWA newsletter.
Global wheat trade has averaged 99 million tonnes per year over the past five years, including a forecast for 2010-11.
USWA president Alan Tracy said trade is expected to jump partly because wheat exports generally originate in temperate countries with low population growth, while the growth in demand comes from tropical and subtropical regions where little wheat is grown.
Rising population in those regions will trigger substantial growth in demand from wheat exporters.
“World wheat trade will at least double in the next 40 years,” said Tracy.
He said the growth in trade will put pressure on grain shippers, handlers, suppliers and wheat farmers in exporting countries. Companies willing to invest in new technology will gain an advantage.
Demand will grow for new and improved varieties of wheat, and prices to growers will be higher on average, with strong competition for acreage among crops.
“No single wheat exporting country or region can meet this growing demand alone,” said Tracy.
More details on the report can be found at the US Wheat Associates website at www.uswheat.org.
