The International Grains Council forecasts lower global production of wheat and corn for 2022-23, while soybeans are projected to increase.
The IGC released its latest supply and demand report on May 19 and lowered its call on total world grain production to 2.251 billion tonnes. That’s down by a little more than one percent from the council’s April report. Total global ending stocks are projected to increase to 267.4 million tonnes, up almost 1.4 percent from April.
The council cited reduced harvests of wheat, corn and sorghum for the overall step back in production. Its May report noted production declines in Argentina, India, and the United States as offsetting increases in Australia and Russia. Other producers such as Canada and the European Union were slightly altered.
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The May report placed world wheat production at 769 million tonnes, slipping 1.4 percent from the previous month. The carryover for wheat was projected to bump up nearly 0.5 percent at 194 million tonnes.
The IGC forecast production increases for Australia, Canada and Russia, but declines elsewhere brought down the overall number.
In particular, Ukraine’s output was slashed from 33 million tonnes in 2021-22 to 19.4 million in 2022-23 because of the ongoing Russian invasion. Since the April report, the IGC cut U.S. production by 6.2 percent at 46.8 million tonnes and the Indian harvest was reduced 5.7 percent at 105 million.
The IGC trimmed its global corn production forecast to 1.184 billion tonnes, a dip of 1.1 percent from last month. At 269.1 million tonnes, the corn carryout projection was increased 1.5 percent.
Smaller 2022-23 harvests forecast in Argentina, South Africa, Ukraine and the U.S. were responsible for reductions, which was partially offset by an increase in Brazil. Of note, the IGC projected Ukraine to tumble from 42.1 million tonnes in 2021-22 down to 18.6 million.
The soybean production forecast was bumped up 1.3 percent at 387.5 million tonnes, with ending stocks expanding 8.1 percent at 58.4 million tonnes. The IGC predicted increases out of China and the U.S. as countering decreases in Ukraine and Paraguay.
