Mark Jan. 12 on your calendar, the date the United States Department of Agriculture releases its winter wheat seeding report.
Wheat prices climbed a little on Dec. 14 when a private analyst, Informa, forecast the expected increase in U.S. winter wheat acres might not be as big as expected considering the price rally wheat saw in 2006.
It pegged wheat area at 44 million acres, an increase of 8.4 percent over last year.
In 2005-06, American farmers seeded 40.575 million acres to the winter crop, but harvested only 31.117 million. Drought wiped out many acres, eliminating the need to harvest them.
Read Also
Canada-U.S. trade relationship called complex
Trade issues existed long before U.S. president Donald Trump and his on-again, off-again tariffs came along, said panelists at a policy summit last month.
Wheat belt farmers are still worried about drought.
The U.S. Drought Monitor at www.drought.unl.edu shows that more winter wheat areas are dry this December than last year at the same time, but the tide might be turning.
The crop is dormant now and progress reports will resume in the spring. The last progress report filed Nov. 26, reflecting crops as they entered dormancy, gave ratings slightly better than last year.
The amount in the good-to-excellent category was 53 percent (52 percent last year), fair 36 percent (33 percent) and very poor to poor 11 percent (15 percent).
The December to February outlook from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov is for warmer than normal temperatures for Nebraska and Kansas and normal temperatures for Texas and most of Oklahoma.
Precipitation is expected to be normal in Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma and wetter than normal in Texas.
Looking further out to the critical March to May period, the outlook is better.
Long-term outlooks are far from certain, but Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas are expected to see above normal precipitation and normal precipitation in Nebraska.
If that moisture forecast comes true, U.S. wheat production could bounce back.
But another consideration is the price of corn. If it soars in the spring as the market battles to get enough corn acres to satisfy booming demand, then some wheat acres might be plowed up and reseeded to corn.
All these factors will influence wheat prices through the winter and play a role when Canadian farmers finalize their seeding plans next spring.
