WINNIPEG — A veteran of political and policy battles in Washington, D.C. is convinced that the Trump vs. The World trade war will stick around — possibly for many months.
Greg Valliere, who has 40 years of experience in D.C., says that solutions and negotiations to end the tariff battles won’t happen until Republicans push back, hard, against President Donald Trump.
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“Business leaders, economists are all in agreement…. This is going to hurt the U.S. economy,” said Valliere, who is the chief U.S. policy strategist for AGF Investments, a Toronto firm that manages $52 billion in assets for more than 815,000 investors.
“The problem is Trump is adamant. He has felt, his entire career, that the U.S. has gotten screwed and we need to retaliate … The key is Republicans who have started to sour on Trump.”
Valliere publishes daily updates on the ongoing tariff saga on the AGF website. In his April 7 post, he summarized the political situation in America.
“We think trade wars may persist for many more months, but at some point … Republicans will tell Trump to wrap up the tariff war. Another election is always just around the corner, and suddenly the Republicans are looking vulnerable in the next one.”
In a phone call with the Western Producer, Valliere said that Republican members of Congress are voicing their concerns.
Maybe not to the press, but to the White House.
“An awful lot of Republicans on Capitol Hill have gone to the White House and said this is going to kill us … in the elections of November 2026.”
Those elections are mid-terms, where certain senators and members of congress must face voters in their state or district.
Those politicians are already hearing concerns from their constituents, including American farmers, who are weary of the market chaos.
The American Soybean Association has been vocal in its criticism of Trump and the tariff war, as about 50 per cent of U.S. soybeans are exported.
Caleb Ragland, ASA president, told WBUR.com that he’s concerned about the future of the farming industry.
“We depend on exports for our livelihood as farmers,” said Ragland, who farms in Kentucky. “We produce many more soybeans than we consume here domestically, so we’re extremely dependent on foreign markets, and particularly China.”
On April 8, China imposed 84 per cent duties on American goods in response to Trump’s tariff of 104 per cent on Chinese products.
Some farm groups have been muted in their criticism of Trump, as they use softer language around tariffs.
“Approximately 15 per cent of the U.S. corn crop is exported every year,” said National Corn Growers Association president Ken Hartman Jr.
“So, we are aware of the potential effects that these new tariffs could have on corn growers who are already faced with a troubling economic landscape.”
Unfortunately for producers, it seems like farm groups have less “clout” at the White House right now, Valliere said.
Under a best-case scenario, it’s possible Republicans could grow a spine and stand up to Trump. But that may not happen for a while, Valliere said.
“I could go on a long rant about how this doesn’t make sense. My bottom line is maybe 90 per cent of all economists in the U.S. are in agreement that this is a bad idea,” he said.
“(But) looking at what Trump did to China … looking at his philosophy, I’m not an optimist that this is going to get wrapped up, anytime soon.”
Contact robert.arnason@producer.com
