American canola acreage is expected to leap by 21 percent this spring.
The United States Department of Agriculture seeding intentions survey showed American canola producers, mainly in North Dakota, expect to seed 1.89 million acres compared to 1.57 million last year and 1.08 million in 1999.
Compared to Canadian canola area, that is small stuff, but it is a 76 percent increase over three years.
Over the same three years, Canadian canola acreage is expected to drop by 22 percent to 10.66 million acres this spring, as the market price dropped.
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Why are our neighbors embracing a crop that is expected to lose money in some areas of Canada this year?
For one thing, American farmers are eager to find rotational crops to break the fusarium disease cycle that is hurting cereal production.
Another reason is the 1996 Farm Bill’s Loan Deficiency Payment program.
That’s the one encouraging record U.S. production of soybeans this year, despite a world surplus of the crop.
The program gives American canola farmers a floor price well above what Canadian farmers can get from the market.
This has irritated some Canadian producers, who see the small but growing amount of American canola seed coming north to Canadian crushers as a subsidized export.
It is also galling that North Dakota is proceeding with legislation that, if passed, would deny entry of Canadian grain if it has residues of pesticides that have not been approved in the U.S.
While the amount of exports that would be found “tainted” would be small, the testing would cost time and money.
North Dakota’s agriculture commissioner Roger Johnson argues that the legislation is designed to ensure the health and safety of Americans. But the real reason is that the state wants to hurry harmonization of chemical registration in the two countries and isn’t above taking Canadian farmers hostage to do it.
The flip side of this coin is dry bean production.
Agriculture Canada expects the price to edge up in the new crop year. A slightly smaller acreage in Canada is expected to be more than offset by a return to average yield, producing a larger crop here.
Meanwhile in the U.S., acreage is expected to fall 17 percent.
You can probably guess why. There is no government support for dry beans.
