Canadian cattle producers are starting to retain heifers for breeding, but 2011 was not a herd expansion year, says a market analyst with Canfax.
Statistics Canada said replacement heifers as of Jan. 1 rose 4.3 percent from a year ago, but cow numbers fell one percent to 4.2 million head, continuing a falling trend that started in January 2006.
“Overall our breeding herd last year still shrunk,” said Brian Perillat of Canfax.
“Even if you combine it with the increase in heifers, we still are not keeping enough heifers to replace the decrease in cow numbers,” he said after the StatsCan report was released Feb. 21.
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The report found 550,000 head were held for breeding but Perillat said the 10 year average retention rate is about 600,000 head.
To rebuild the herd, fewer cows must be killed and more heifers must be held for breeding. The cow kill is slowing, but with quality cows at 70 to 80 cents a pound, it is tempting to continue selling.
However, so far this year, breeding bull sales are strong as producers bring in new herd sires.
“The salvage value on old bulls is extremely strong so that gives you a good down payment on a replacement,” Perillat said.
In some cases these cull bulls were bought as yearlings for around $2,200. When they are sold into the cull market as mature animals for 85 cents a pound or better, the rancher is paid back in full.
The first two months of this year have seen record prices for 550 pound calves.
“The big story is in calves. They have jumped 45 percent in the last three years,” he said.
“That is what is going to spur any kind of expansion. The cow-calf guy needs to see the big bucks and they will respond in keeping cows and heifers back,” he said.
“It is going to take some time to regain what was lost. It won’t take one or two years. It will take more just to gain back everything you have lost,” he said.
Statistics Canada said total beef cattle inventory was 12.5 million head, up half a percent from a year earlier.
There were about 1.4 million dairy cows and heifers on 16,270 farms, unchanged from last year.
Alberta’s cattle herd on Jan. 1 stood at 4.995 million, Saskatchewan’s at 2.6 million, Manitoba’s at 1.165 million and British Columbia at 540,000.
After years of poor returns and a national sow cull, hog inventories are growing again.
Statistics Canada said there were 12 million hogs on farm Jan. 1, up 1.1 percent from a year earlier.
It reported 1.3 million sows, down fractionally from a year earlier and 1.3 percent fewer than in 2010.
Domestic hog slaughter totalled 21.3 million head in 2011, down 0.1 percent from 2010. Slaughter in the fourth quarter of 2011 was up 2.4 percent from the same period in 2010.
Slaughter prices rose through 2011, reaching levels in the second half not achieved since 2004.
Exports in 2011 were still 8.4 percent belowthe number exported in 2009 and 41.8 percent lower than in 2007, the year before the 2008 introduction of American country of origin labeling regulations.
