An early spring is breaking out all over: in Western Canada, the U.S. Plains and Midwest, Europe and the former Soviet Union.
If the warm weather holds, western Canadian farmers will be happy to get on the land much earlier than they have the past few years, when excess moisture and cool temperatures delayed seeding.
U.S. Midwest farmers will be happy for the same reason, and farmers in South Dakota were talking about seeding spring wheat by the end of the month.
However, the warm weather is a concern for those in the southern U.S. Plains.
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The region can’t seem to kick its multi-year dry trend. Relief was not in the cards this week with temperatures in the mid 20s C and no rain in the immediate forecast.
In Kansas, which is the biggest winter wheat state, the weekly winter wheat crop condition report on March 16 declined slightly from the previous week.
The condition was still better than last year at this time, but only a little. Kansas wheat struggled last year in dry conditions, with yields falling to 28 bushels an acre, down from 38 bu. the previous year.
However, the crop in Oklahoma, another major producer, is substantially better than last year with only 16 percent in poor to very poor shape, compared to 37 percent last year when it was suffering serious drought.
Still, the situation has helped wheat futures rally for six of seven days to March 16 when this column was written.
Kansas City hard red winter wheat gained 7.5 percent, bouncing off the low March 5, which was lowest price since the spring of 2010.
The rally in Minneapolis spring wheat was not as strong, up only about five percent.
The U.S. Weather Service three-month outlook for the southern Plains is for average temperatures and precipitation.
Wheat is also getting a bit of support from crop concerns in Russia. Western areas of Russia have had unusually warm dry weather, according to the IKAR agricultural consultancy.
In the next week or so, officials in Russia should provide an estimate of the amount of winter crop that died over the winter.
Forecaster SovEcon forecast 11 to 12 percent winterkill early this week, up from a normal figure of less than 10 percent.
The last update from the Russian agriculture ministry said almost 20 percent of the winter crop was in poor shape.
On the other hand, Western Europe, which has been a formidable wheat competitor all through 2014-15, looks like it might continue that role through the next crop year.
Crops in France, the European Union’s biggest wheat exporter, are in excellent condition after a mild winter.
This price rally in wheat is obviously welcome, but I can’t see it gathering a lot of momentum, The U.S. is already struggling to sell wheat because of its strong dollar and because competitors have ample old crop stocks.
The winter wheat crop in the southern Plains, or elsewhere, would have to deteriorate much more to support a sustained rally.
darce.mcmillan@producer.com
