Manitoba’s latest flood forecast shows a relatively high potential for flooding in southwestern and southeastern parts of the province.
Much will depend on how fast snow melts and how much more rain and snow fall from now until spring, cautioned Manitoba Conservation in its March 23 outlook.
A single big snowstorm or significant rainfall between now and early April could mean flooding.
However, weather has been dry, mild and sunny, and so far, snow has been melting gradually.
Significant flooding along the Souris River is likely. Around Coulter, flooding will occur by the end of March, even with cool weather.
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With normal weather, crests should be somewhat lower than in the flood of 1999, according to the provincial department, but the duration of flooding will likely be much shorter.
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For the Assiniboine River, conditions have improved somewhat. The department still expects flooding of valley farmland from Millwood to Brandon, with levels slightly above those of 1999.
There is a one in 10 chance that adverse weather could cause severe flooding. Crests from the Shellmouth Dam to Russell, and at most other points, would be lower than 1995 levels.
Tributaries of the Assiniboine River between Shellmouth and Brandon will likely flood, as will western tributaries of the Souris River.
There will likely be minor flooding in the westlake and interlake regions too.
Along the Red River, minor flooding of low-lying farmland is likely. There is a one in 10 chance that bad weather could cause levels somewhat below those of 1996.
Because of extremely high soil moisture left over from last fall’s rain, streams like the Roseau, Rat and Seine rivers, and Tourond and Cooks creeks may also flood.
Heavy rains in the area could create floods in May or June, said the department.
There is also a greater than normal chance of ice jam flooding along these streams.
