Long range weather forecasts are far from reliable, but it is worthwhile to look at them, as a good topic for coffee row, if nothing else.
Environment Canada has forecasts out for March to May and June through August.
The spring forecast shows potential for cooler than normal conditions for western Alberta and eastern Saskatchewan.
The precipitation forecast shows potential for wetter than normal conditions in Manitoba and drier conditions in southwestern Saskatchewan and north-central and northeastern Alberta.
However, the agency also takes a stab at forecasting how likely it is for the potential to come true. When that is taken into account, the wet forecast for Manitoba has meaning only for the Interlake and northwestern farming areas.
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The dry forecast has a significant confidence level only in north-central Alberta.
The June through August forecast has a significant confidence level for warmer than normal weather in Saskatchewan.
The summer precipitation forecast shows potential for drier than normal conditions, but there is no better than 50-50 confidence in the forecast.
The U.S. National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, or CPC, calls for cooler than normal spring weather in eastern Montana, North and South Dakota and Nebraska. Summer temperatures in this area are expected to be normal.
The moisture forecast for the northern plains in spring and summer is for average conditions.
Farther south, the CPC says warmer than normal conditions may develop in July and August for most of the corn, soy and winter wheat areas. Moisture will be normal.
Private weather forecaster Global Weather Services of Kansas City, Missouri, sees a wet spring followed by a hot, dry summer on the Great Plains of America.
Taking all these together, we see the possibility for a cool, wet spring in many important cropping areas of Canada and the United States.
That might mean seeding delays or maybe welcome moisture for getting crops off to a good start.
As spring rolls into summer, there is potential for warmer than normal weather in Saskatchewan and in U.S. corn and soybean areas.
Will the spring moisture be enough to hold the crop through the heat waves? Or will plants have weak root systems because of the early moisture and so be unable to handle the heat?
It’s all speculation now.
