WINNIPEG, Man. — In the coming days, Canadian Wheat Board weathe r specialist Bruce Burnett will closely monitor nighttime temperatures in Alberta, because an early fall frost could have a significant impact on this year’s wheat crop on the Prairies.
“There’s a portion of the crop… north of Calgary and up to Edmonton and certainly up in the Peace River region, where they need another week to two weeks of development time to get mature,” he said, following the board’s crop year-end news conference, in Winnipeg Aug. 26.
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“(In) Central Saskatchewan and Alberta, from north to south, yield potentials are very good… and Manitoba production is down. So that area takes on a bigger impact on the overall situation.”
Assuming Alberta and parts of Saskatchewan dodge a major frost, Burnett and other board analysts expect the 2011 crop will be similar in size to last year, but quality will be superior.
The board estimates all-wheat production in Western Canada will be 21.3 million tonnes for the 2011-12 crop year, less than Statistics Canada’s forecast, released Aug. 25, of 21.5 million tonnes. In 2010, Prairie farmers harvested 21 million tonnes of wheat.
Durum production is expected to increase substantially, going to 3.9 million tonnes this year from three million tonnes in 2010. As well, the board’s forecast for barley production is eight million tonnes, up from seven million tonnes last year.
Overall, wheat production is forecasted below the five-year average of 22.4 million tonnes for Western Canada. A wet spring prevented farmers from seeding six million acres of cropland, mostly in southwestern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan. Consequently, producers seeded only 20.3 million acres of wheat this year, the second smallest acreage in the last four decades.
On the plus side, cereal quality should be at least average in 2011.
Last year, only 38 percent of Canada Western Red Spring Wheat was in the top two grades. In an average year, 68 percent falls into the two top grades.
“We’re hoping to see a return to normal quality profiles for the (Prairies),” said Ian White, CWB chief executive officer.
If producers manage to get an average or high quality crop in the bin, White said the board should have no trouble selling it, even though the CWB will face export competition from expanded production in Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan.
“I think we’ll sell our crop very well against that (Black Sea wheat)…. We will have a customer base that’s eager to get their hands on that quality.”
White said the CWB has set an export target for all board grains of 18 million tonnes, compared to 15.8 million tonnes of exports last year.
With larger exports, the 2011-12 crop year should be a profitable one for Prairie farmers because tight U.S. corn stocks will provide a floor price for “the entire grain complex, including wheat,” White said.
In its August Pool Return Outlook, the board is projecting a price of $321 per tonne ($8.74 per bushel) for No. 1 CWRS 13.5 at port.
White said it’s too early to assume that the 2011 harvest in Western Canada will deliver higher quality cereals.
“The big question is quality. Things look good at the present time, but we still need three to four weeks of good, frost-free weather.”
White highlighted temperature and rainfall to illustrate how 2011 was a poor growing season in the eastern Prairies and a good, but slow developing year for Alberta growers.
In Winnipeg, the temperature exceeded 25 C more than 40 days this summer and Environment Canada recorded 40 millimetres of rain from July 1 until Aug. 29. Winnipeg normally receives 145 mm of rain in July and August.
Most of Alberta only had 15 days this summer with temperatures above 25 C.
