Canfax report

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Published: November 12, 2015

This cattle market information is selected from the weekly report from Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association. More market information, analysis and statistics are available by becoming a Canfax subscriber by calling 403-275-5110 or at www.canfax.ca.

Fed cattle lower

The Chicago cattle futures market took another turn toward volatility last week with sharp declines bleeding into the cash market.

Fed cash prices in the U.S. Plains fell to US$130-$135 per hundredweight, down from $133 to $138.50 the previous week.

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Canadian prices also fell with the Canfax weighted average steer price at C$169.21 per cwt., down $3.28, and heifers averaging $165.96, down $4.51.

Most dressed sales were $278-$285 delivered. U.S. dealers made a few purchases.

The Alberta cash-to-futures basis level was -$11.52, in line with the five year average.

Delivery dates were mostly for the end of the month, but packers will buy out as far as January if they can.

However, actual pick-up dates are being deferred and are tying up equity and pens for fall bunk replacements.

Weekly western Canadian fed slaughter to Oct. 31 totalled 33,764 head, down 14 percent from the previous week.

Weekly exports to Oct. 24 rose to 4,507 head.

On a positive note, U.S. steer carcass weights fell for the first time in 13 weeks. U.S. packer interest is improving and market-ready supplies will tighten.

Cow prices rise

Western cow slaughter totalled 5,743 head, the most since early March but still below year ago levels. Cows rose $1.50-$2. D1, D2 cows ranged $105-$120 to average $114.17 and D3 cows ranged $92-$108 to average $100.

Rail grade prices ranged $210-$215.

Butcher bulls established new lows at $133.50, down 95 cents.

Prices near the seasonal bottom have prompted speculative buyers to step in and support the market, but larger supplies will likely cap prices this month.

Feeders lower

Auction volumes were the largest this year with Alberta at 94,500 head and Saskatchewan at 48,700 head.

The large volume and weaker Chicago futures pressured prices lower.

Steers 550 pounds were down $5 but remained $2 higher than lows posted early in October.

Alberta 550 lb. calves have been trading at a premium to the U.S. market.

It is rare for weekly lows to be set in November, but an annual low is possible in the next few weeks if live cattle futures don’t rebound.

Yearling volumes have tightened, but some are still coming off grass and moving out of background lots.

There is talk that more yearling heifers are on offer compared to steers because there is a good chance some producers have completed selling their steer inventory.

As well, preg-checked open heifers are going to market now that cattle are coming off pasture.

Beef under pressure

U.S. boxed beef fell last week with Choice at US$218.86, down $2.07 per cwt., and Select at $208.65, down $2.90.

Retailers are not featuring expensive ground meat, and the falling demand is weighing heavily on manufacturing meat.

U.S. retailers will strongly feature turkey as American Thanksgiving approaches, which is much less expensive than beef and pork.

Weekly Canadian boxed beef prices to Oct. 30 traded mixed with AAA up $6.06 at C$276.85 per cwt. and AA down $5.23 at $262.65.

The cutout is expected to drop below year-ago levels with softer demand for end meats compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

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