Canfax report

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Published: April 9, 2015

Fed steers at record

Canadian fed steers set a new record with a weighted average of $199.11, up $1.74 from the previous week.

There were too few heifers to establish a price.

Good Canadian and American demand supported the market.

These record prices are well above current feedlot break-evens in Canada, but the same cannot be said in the United States, where feedlots face negative feeding margins.

Sales to the U.S. were generally steady to a slight premium over local sales.

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Trade was too light to establish U.S. prices. Dressed bids of US$258-$263 were reported in the north, while live bids of $163 surfaced in the south.

The Alberta cash-to-futures basis closed the week at -$5.42, similar to levels seen in 2008 and 2010.

Fed exports over the past three weeks have ranged 6,300-7,400 head, well down from same period last year when volumes ranged 10,000-11,500 head.

Many producers believe it could be the end of April or beginning of May before fed calves hit the market.

Market-ready supplies remain manageable.

Chicago June live cattle futures were trading above the 100-day moving average, but there was resistance at US$153.50 per hundredweight.

A move to $155-$156 is likely if the market breaks through that resistance, and a revisit to the January high near $158 would be the next test.

Cows strong

Slaughter cows traded unevenly steady with D1,2 prices up C92 cents per cwt. while D3s slipped.

D1, D2 cows ranged $135-$155 to average $145.67 while D3s ranged $117-$140 to average $128.17.

Rail cow bids held mostly steady at $277-$282 per cwt. delivered.

Slaughter bull prices rallied to a new record average of $162.07.

Weekly western Canadian non-fed slaughter for the week ending March 28 slipped 17 percent to 4,068 head.

Non-fed exports to March 21were steady at 4,868 head.

Cow prices typically plateau in the middle of April, but increased supplies next week could hold the market steady.

Seasonal demand for hamburger will be supportive.

Heavier feeders rise

Feeder demand is outpacing supply, and fewer light calves are being offered.

With small lots of varied quality, light calf prices plummeted more than C$7.50 per cwt. lower.

Buyers adapted and have turned to heavier feeders.

Good demand for 500-700 pound feeders pushed prices $2-$4 higher.

Grass buyers bought feeders up to 800 lb., lifting the steer 700-800 lb. class by $6.

Steers heavier than 800 lb. rose $1 while heifers were mixed with a substantial premium for replacement quality animals.

The Alberta auction volume fell 24 percent to 21,873 head.

Weekly feeder exports to March 21 rose 16 percent to 18,959 head, the most since fall 2008.

Prices are expected to be well supported with increased feedlot buying interest from both sides of the border.

US beef up

Beef cut-out values strengthened, but packers continued to fight negative margins.

Weekly beef cow slaughter volumes during March ranged from 41,500 to 42,800 head, the smallest seen this year.

U.S. beef higher

US boxed beef prices closed the week higher with Choice at US$255.94 and Select at US$250.46

Buyer interest is expected to im-prove in April as people fire up their barbecues.

Weekly Canadian cut-out values to March 21 saw AAA fall 69 cents to $306.51 while AA climbed $2.24 to $305.71. The cutouts are 23-25 percent above year ago levels, and the AAA-Choice spread at -$6.60 has improved considerably from last year’s -$21.59.

This cattle market information is selected from the weekly report from Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association. More market information, analysis and statistics are available by becoming a Canfax subscriber by calling 403-275-5110 or at www.canfax.ca.

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