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Canfax report

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Published: December 17, 2015

This cattle market information is selected from the weekly report from Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association. More market information, analysis and statistics are available by becoming a Canfax subscriber by calling 403-275-5110 or at www.canfax.ca.

Fed cattle fall

Many feedlots deliberately pushed cattle from November into December hoping for a price recovery, but that has not been the case.

Annual price highs occurred in December in the last three years, but the market this year is falling sharply.

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Canfax said there was not enough volume to establish an average cash price in Western Canada.

In the United States, cash cattle sold at US$118-$121 per hundredweight, down as much as $6 from the previous week and the lowest of the year. Long-term technical support is at $115-$118.

Chicago December live cattle posted new contract lows during the week. The futures price hit the lowest point since June 2013 on a continuous basis. Record carcass weights, sluggish exports, falling stock markets and uncertainty surrounding country-of-origin labelling all weighed on the futures market.

The two major Alberta packers were more even in their buying last week, rounding up the supply they needed to carry them to the end of the year.

Alberta cash-to-futures basis levels strengthened, encouraging sales with delivery scheduled for the end of December.

The focus was on heavy cattle as feedlots tried to keep weights under control.

U.S. bids were comparable with Alberta sales, but American packers were looking for January delivery.

It appears some contract and cash cattle scheduled for November delivery had not yet been delivered.

Cows steady

Slaughter cow prices stabilized despite large auction volumes.

D1, D2 prices averaged $100.83 per cwt., down 42 cents, while D3 prices rose 18 cents to average $89.60.

Dressed bids were steady at $198-$203 delivered.

Butcher bull prices fell almost $1 to average $119.60.

Weekly western Canadian slaughter to Dec. 5 fell nine percent to 8,056 head.

Slaughter is down 12 percent this year.

Weekly exports to Nov. 28 rose to 6,864 head.

Exports this year are down 16 percent.

Marketings should dwindle toward year end, and good demand should hold prices steady.

Feeders fall

Auction volumes were down seasonally, but prices were sharply lower.

Sluggish fed cattle turnover and a lack of pen space are limiting feeder demand.

Steer calves 300-500 pounds tumbled $20-$25 per cwt., while heifers were $15-$17 lower.

Steers 500-600 lb. fell for a sixth consecutive week. Same weight heifers fell for the 15th straight week.

Middle weight feeders fell $13-$15 while yearlings heavier than 900 lb. dropped about $11.

Calf prices were down $35-$40 compared to the same week last year.

Feeding margins on new placements are around break-even, based on current weekly feeder prices and lacklustre cattle futures.

Alberta auction volumes totaled 40,962 head, down 14 percent on the week but up 12 percent from last year.

Volume is down five percent for the year.

Weekly feeder exports to Nov. 28 were only 769 head.

Exports are down 32 percent this year.

The beginning of December usually marks the last big push to get feeders to market before the end of the year. Volumes will likely fall off now.

Beef lower

U.S. beef cutouts fell with Choice at US$203.08, down $1.40, and Select was $188.47, down $4.55.

Weekly Canadian cutouts to Dec. 10 slipped from the previous week with AAA at C$263.58 and AA at $251.63. AAA and AA were trading more than $25 per cwt. lower compared to last year.

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