The grain market is still fixated on midwestern U.S. farmer seeding plans and spring weather.
We’ve had lots on those topics in recent weeks in this section and more this week on page 16.
Current trends will change only if the March 30 U.S. Department of Agriculture seeding intentions report delivers a surprise.
So I’ll use this column to draw your attention to a couple of interesting things I’ve come across recently:
- The Benfield Hazard Research Centre, Department of Space and Climate Physics at University College London, has developed an easy to use global drought information website at drought.mssl.ucl.ac.uk.
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It has a map of the world that uses colour to depict areas suffering drought. You can zoom in on regions to get more detailed assessments. You can also select the assessment time period to help determine if the region has been in long- or short-term drought. It also assembles news stories about drought from various news sites.
- When the Soviet Union collapsed and dissolved in 1991, the economic disruption left people there without the money to buy meat. This decimated the livestock sector.
Economic conditions are still less than perfect but are much better than they were and I assumed that cattle and hog numbers would rebound. But there has been almost no improvement in Russia and Ukraine.
According to USDA numbers, the cattle population in Russia has declined to 18.7 million as of the beginning of 2007 from 58.8 million in 1990. The swine herd has declined to 17.6 million from 40 million in 1990 but actually bottomed in 2001 at 15.8 million.
Ukraine’s cattle herd stands at 6.6 million, down from 25.2 million in 1990. Its swine herd has declined to about eight million from almost 20 million in 1990, but that is up a little from the low of about 6.5 million posted in 2005.
Both countries have had to import large quantities of beef and pork.
The question is whether Russia and Ukraine can reverse this decline and build a modern livestock industry.
They have the capacity to grow grain and any surplus production is exported, usually at low prices. It would be far better to feed it at home and reduce meat imports.
