North American Grains/Oilseed Review – Canola Chops Around, Ends Lower

By Dave Sims and Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, February 18 – THE ICE Futures Canada canola market bounced around both sides of unchanged in choppy trading Thursday, before finishing weaker.

A lack of buying pushed down Malaysian palm oil which contributed to declines in canola. European rapeseed futures, crude oil, Chicago soyoil and soybeans were also lower.

The looming South American soybean crop cast a bearish tone over the market.

Traders were rolling their positions out of the soon-to-expire March contract into the May one.

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However, slight weakness in the Canadian dollar made canola more attractive to outside buyers which lent support to prices.

Steady commercial buying also helped prop up canola.

Rain in Brazil is expected to delay the harvest somewhat.

Milling wheat, durum and barley were all untraded and unchanged.

Around 33,069 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when around 36,139 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for about 24,744 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, barley and durum were all untraded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were down by two to three cents per bushel on Thursday, as relatively favourable South American crop prospects weighed on values.

The soybean harvest is now underway in Brazil under improving weather conditions, and newly harvested supplies are expected to become more and more available in the weeks ahead.

Chart-based selling contributed to the declines, as soybeans backed away from the two-week highs hit on Wednesday.

SOYOIL settled lower on Thursday.

SOYMEAL futures were lower on Thursday, but lagged the rest of the soy complex to the downside as adjustments to the oil/meal spread favoured the meal side of the equation.

CORN futures in Chicago were down by one to three cents per bushel on Thursday, with the favourable South American crop prospects also weighing on prices.

Large US stocks and a lack of fresh demand news but further pressure on values, with a late turn lower in crude oil another bearish influence.

WHEAT futures in Chicago were down by three to six cents per bushel on Thursday, as the recent short-covering rally finally ran out of steam.

Ample world wheat supplies and lacklustre demand for US wheat added to the softer tone.

However, concerns that milder weather in the US winter wheat growing regions may cause early emergence and possible frost damage down the road provided some support.

– Argentina’s grain exports have risen by 57% since lifting tariffs on wheat and corn, and reducing them for soybeans, in December, according to the country’s ag ministry.

– Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, has cancelled a number of cargoes recently over concerns about ergot contamination. The country has now sent out a letter to suppliers saying that it will once again allow tolerance levels of 0.05% – which would be in line with international standards.

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