By Dave Sims and Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada
Winnipeg, September 4 – THE ICE Futures Canada canola market ended weaker on Friday, following losses in US soy and still under pressure from yesterday’s Statistics Canada report which revealed more canola in Canada that previously thought.
StatsCan pegged Canadian supplies at 2.3 million tonnes as of July 31, 2015 in its Stocks of Principal Fields Crop report. That was significantly higher than what analysts had been predicting heading into the report. As of July 31, 2014, Canada’s supplies were pegged at 3 million tonnes, which is 600,000 more than the previous forecast.
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“Canola is still behaving a little weak following that StatsCan surprise. It’s a little oversold, nobody seems to be too interested in buying it right now,” a trader said.
The US soy complex was lower too, which also dragged at canola values.
Bargain hunters were out while traders positioned themselves ahead of the long weekend which helped limit the losses.
Around 22,296 canola contracts were traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when around 34,752 contracts changed hands.
Milling wheat, barley and durum were all untraded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were two to four cents per bushel lower on Friday, as improving US production prospects and positioning ahead of the Labour Day long weekend weighed on values.
Speculative selling contributed to the declines, although values held above major support.
Solid export demand did help limit the losses, as the USDA reported large sales to China and other ‘unknown destinations’ this morning.
SOYOIL settled lower on Friday, with losses in crude oil putting some pressure on the vegetable oil markets in general.
SOYMEAL futures were down on Friday.
CORN futures in Chicago were steady to up two cents per bushel on Friday, after holding within a narrow range throughout the session.
After hitting some of their lowest levels in a year on Thursday, corn futures were due for some consolidation ahead of the long weekend.
Shifting weather forecasts were also being watched, with a cooler bias now expected in some parts of the Midwest.
WHEAT futures in Chicago were up by one to three cents per bushel on Friday, seeing a modest correction to end the week amid oversold price sentiment.
After hitting fresh contract lows on Thursday, all three US wheat futures markets benefited from end user bargain hunting and speculative short-covering ahead of the long weekend.
However, the fundamentals remain bearish overall, as US wheat is still expensive internationally.
– Untimely rains in the United Kingdom are cutting into wheat quality at harvest time, although operations are about 60% complete, according to reports.
– Ukraine exported 2.6 million tonnes of wheat during the first two months of the months of the current marketing year, which compares with the 2.3 million tonnes sold during the same period the previous year. Total grain production in 2015 is forecast at 60 million tonnes by the country’s agriculture minister, which would compare with teh record 63.8 million tonnes grown in 2014.
