North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola rallies, soybeans surge

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market rallied on Tuesday, the day before United States President Donald Trump imposes potential tariffs on Canadian imports.

Chicago soyoil was up sharply and European rapeseed was higher. Crude oil was mixed as the oil industry awaits the effects of the tariffs. Malaysian palm oil hasn’t traded since Friday due to a holiday.

An analyst said soyoil received a boost after United States Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced US$537 million in funding for biofuel infrastructure despite the lack of a national biofuel policy.

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The USDA attaché in Ottawa pegged Canada’s 2024-25 canola harvest at 17.85 million tonnes, down from the department’s official call of 18.80 million. Also, the attaché projected the 2025-26 crop at 18.46 million tonnes.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was up more than one-tenth of a U.S. cent compared to Monday’s close.

There were 69,645 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 52,897 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 40,820 of the contracts traded.

The May SOYBEAN contract reached its highest level on Tuesday since March 6 at the Chicago Board of Trade, after the United States Department of Agriculture’s announced US$537 million in obligated funding to biodiesel infrastructure.

The USDA released its monthly Fats and Oils Report earlier today with the February soybean crush at 189 million bushels, in line with trade expectations. However, the total was down 24 million from January and down four million from a year earlier.

U.S. soyoil stocks were 2.24 billion pounds, 28 million below the average trade guess, down 11 per cent from the month before and down two per cent from one year ago.

Argentine farmers have only sold up to 18 per cent of their 2024-25 soybean crop on average, the slowest pace in 10 years.

May CORN was higher for the third straight session on Tuesday, marking its longest rally in three weeks.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced the biofuel funding would help gas stations make upgrades so they can offer ethanol and biodiesel blends. The USDA and the Environmental Protection Agency are also looking to facilitate year-round sales of E15 or 15 per cent ethanol-blended gasoline.

Up to a quarter of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is stressed from dryness with half of the country expected to see very little precipitation over the next two weeks.

The USDA projected South African corn production to rise two per cent in 2025-26 at 16 million tonnes.

WHEAT futures were higher on Tuesday, led by Kansas City hard red winter gaining the most out of the three major U.S. varieties despite mixed growing conditions nationwide.

Illinois made the biggest improvement in wheat conditions, rising 13 points over the past week to 69 per cent good to excellent. Nebraska was up seven points at 30 per cent, while Indiana and Texas both gained five points at 72 per cent and 63 per cent, respectively. Kansas was flat at 49 per cent, Oklahoma was down three points at 33 per cent and Colorado was down eight points at 58 per cent.

A poll showed Australia’s 2025-26 wheat production may drop 16 per cent to 28.6 million tonnes.

Argus Media cut its Russian wheat production estimate by 1.2 million tonnes at 80.3 million.

SovEcon reported export prices for 12.5 per cent protein free-on-board delivered Russian wheat at between US$250 to US$254 per tonne.

Ukrainian ag exports rose 9.8 per cent in March at 5.4 million tonnes, of which two-thirds were grain.

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