WINNIPEG — The ICE Futures canola market saw early gains fade into the red on Friday despite persistent hot and dry weather on the Prairies.
One trader said declining crush margins and negative outlooks for the Chicago soy complex are pressuring canola prices.
Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil were higher, but European rapeseed was mixed. Crude oil lost US$2 per barrel due to Chinese demand concerns and renewed hopes for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
The Canadian Grain Commission reported 170,800 tonnes of canola were exported during the week ended July 14, down nearly 67,000 tonnes from the previous week. Cumulative exports this marketing year total 6.696 million tonnes, down from 7.851 million last year.
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At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down nearly two-tenths of a United States cent compared to Thursday’s close.
There were 58,623 canola contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 49,787 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 36,146 of the contracts traded.
All three major United States WHEAT varieties saw their prices rise on Friday, as Minneapolis spring and Kansas City hard red wheat extended their respective rallies to three days.
The Canadian Grain Commission said 306,000 tonnes of wheat were exported in the week ended July 14, putting season-to-date exports at 20.39 million tonnes, up 7.8 per cent from a year ago.
Rainfall in France has deteriorated the country’s soft wheat crop as FranceAgriMer rated it at 52 per cent good to excellent on July 15, five points less than last week and down 28 points from last year. It was the worst rating for France’s soft wheat crop since 2016. So far, 14 per cent of the wheat crop was cut, compared to four per cent the previous week and 51 per cent last year.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported 96 per cent of Argentina’s wheat crop was planted, up only 2.2 points from last week due to polar winds.
While November SOYBEANS did not sink to a new contract low, the contract was still down on the day. Prices have alternated between gains and losses over the past four sessions.
Since February, Chinese state stockpiler Sinograin auctioned off 9.68 million tonnes of soybeans, but only 2.08 million tonnes were bought by crushers. China’s ag ministry pegged its soybean consumption forecast for 2024-25 at 114.56 million tonnes, 780,000 tonnes less than the previous year.
Forward sales for new crop U.S. soybeans are 2.074 million tonnes, the lowest figure in 20 years. However, the USDA announced on Friday 105,000 tonnes of soymeal were sold for 2024-25 delivery to unknown destinations.
Brazilian crop consultancy Safras and Mercado projected the country’s soybean crop to be 151.5 million tonnes this year and 171.5 million tonnes in 2024-25.
The September CORN contract declined for the second-straight day.
Parts of Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Indiana and Ohio could get up to 25 millimetres of rain over the next week. However, drier conditions were forecast in northern and western corn growing areas of the U.S. going into August.
The BAGE reported Argentina’s corn planting was up nearly 10 percentage points from last week at 79.2 per cent, maintaining its production forecast of 46.5 million tonnes. The projected average yield was 6.55 tonnes per hectare, 1.45 more than last year.
