By Phil Franz-Warkentin
Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market was sharply higher on Friday, taking back most of the losses posted the previous two sessions as a rally in Chicago soyoil provided spillover support.
Monthly supply/demand estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture included the agency’s first balance sheets for the 2024/25 crop, with updates to South American production estimates also released. While the numbers were somewhat bearish for soybeans, prices still moved higher with soyoil leading beans higher on talk that the U.S. government was considering raising import duties on used cooking oil from China. If the tariffs are raised, that would drive more demand towards soyoil for making biofuel.
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European rapeseed was also stronger, while Malaysian palm oil posted small losses.
Recent rains across Western Canada helped improve moisture conditions in many areas, tempering the upside in canola.
There were an estimated 50,000 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 58,778 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 25,212 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were higher on Friday, seeing a correction to end the week despite a relatively neutral to bearish monthly supply/demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture. A rally in soyoil on rumours the U.S. government may increase tariffs on imports of used Chinese cooking oil provided support.
The government agency forecast U.S. soybean production to hit 4.45 billion bushels in 2024/25, which would be the second largest crop on record comparing with the 4.17 billion bushels grown in 2023/24.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2024/25 are forecast at 445 million bushels, well above trade estimates and the 340 million bushels expected for the current marketing year. World soybean ending stocks could climb as to 128.0 million tonnes, from 111.8 million this crop year.
The government agency did lower its call on Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean crop slightly, now at 154 million tonnes. However, that was still above average trade estimates, with new crop production in the South American country forecast at 169 million tonnes.
CORN was also underpinned by chart-based buying ahead of the weekend and tighter-than-expected carryout estimates.
U.S. corn production for the upcoming growing season was forecast at 14.86 billion bushels, with average yields of 181 bushels per acre. While production would be down from the 15.34 billion bushels grown the current year, the carryout was still expected to grow to 2.1 billion bushels, from the 2.02 billion bushels expected this year. Average trade estimates had been for even larger corn ending stocks for both years.
Brazil’s 2023/24 corn crop was estimated at 122 million tonnes, which would be down by two million from an earlier estimate. The USDA also cut two million tonnes from Argentina’s corn crop, now at 53 million tonnes.
WHEAT was remained supported by weather concerns in Russia, as recent frosts and dryness cut into the production prospects.
U.S. wheat production was forecast to hit 1.858 billion bushels in 2024/25, up by about 46 million bushels on the year. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks, at 766 million bushels, would be up from 688 million in 2023/24.
