By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed lower on Monday, unable to fend off pressure from sharp declines in Chicago soyoil.
Modest losses in European rapeseed, Malaysian palm oil, and Chicago soybeans also weighed on canola values. Some support came from upticks in Chicago soymeal. Small declines in global crude oil prices pulled the oilseeds lower.
An analyst said canola was rangebound with concerns over dryness across the Prairies providing a measure of support.
The United States Department of Agriculture attaché in Ottawa issued their report on Canadian oilseeds. The attaché placed canola production for 2023/24 at 18.33 million tonnes, down from the USDA’s call of 18.80 million. Also, the attaché put ending stocks at 2.05 million tonnes, versus the department’s 1.58 million.
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For 2024/25, the Ottawa desk projected production for 2024/25 at 18.07 million tonnes, exports of 6.90 million, and total domestic use of 11.43 million. Ending stocks were forecast to be 1.94 million tonnes.
The Canadian dollar was higher at mid-afternoon Monday, with the loonie at 73.65 U.S. cents, compared to Friday’s close of 73.54.
There were 45,740 contracts traded on Monday, compared to Friday when 40,781 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 29,460 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola May 638.30 dn 4.80 Jul 648.10 dn 3.40 Nov 656.40 dn 3.30 Jan 663.60 dn 3.40
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade finished lower in choppy trading on Monday, pulled down by sharp losses in soyoil.
The United States Department of Agriculture issued its export inspections report and for the week ended Apr. 4, outbound movements of soybeans were 484,328 tonnes, down 63,023 from the previous week. The year-to-date reached 37.60 million tonnes, well behind those this time last year of 46.14 million.
The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly crop progress report today at 3 pm CDT.
Also, the department is set to publish its April supply and demand estimates on Thursday at 11 am CDT. Ahead of the report, the average trade guess placed soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 at 317 million bushels, up two million from March. Global ending stocks were projected to dip to 113.7 million tonnes from 114.3 million.
As for South America, the markets predicted the USDA will place Brazil soybean production for 2023/24 at 151.7 million tonnes, down 3.3 million from last month. Argentina is slated to come in at 50.5 million tonnes, up 500,000 from March.
AgRural put the Brazil soybean harvest at 78 per cent complete, up four points during the week.
Iran purchased 100,000 of soymeal from either Argentina or Brazil.
CORN futures were slightly higher on Monday, due to a good export pace.
U.S. corn export inspections came to 1.42 million tonnes, slightly lower from the 1.47 million the week before. The year-to-date remained well ahead of last year at 27.33 million tonnes versus 20.21 million.
The 2023/24 carryover for U.S. corn was estimated to be 2.1 billion bushels, down from 2.17 billion in the March report. Globally, corn ending stocks are expected to pull back to 316.7 million tonnes from 319.6 million in March.
Corn production in Argentina was pegged at 55.6 million tonnes, down 400,000 and that in Brazil is expected to drop almost 2.3 million tonnes at 121.8 million.
WHEAT futures were mixed on Monday, with upticks in Chicago and Minneapolis while Chicago eased back.
The weather outlook for the U.S. Plains forecast just over half of region to be dry this week.
Export inspections of U.S. wheat were 497,534 tonnes, lower than last week’s 569,147. The year-to-date slipped a bit further back at 15.35 million tonnes compared to 17.25 million this time last year.
U.S wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 were pegged to be 690 million bushels, up 17 million from March. The world wheat carryout was estimated to be 259.1 million tonnes, bumping up from the 258.8 million in March.
The Roller Four Millers Federation of India placed the country’s wheat output at 105 million tonnes, down seven million from the national government’s estimate.
SovEcon raised its estimate for Russian wheat exports for March by 700,000 tonnes at 4.8 million.
