By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures closed higher on Friday for the third consecutive day.
Support came from gains in Chicago soybeans and soymeal, as well as European rapeseed. Losses in Chicago soyoil weighed on canola values while Malaysian palm oil was relatively steady. Crude oil prices slipped back, adding more pressure on the oilseeds.
“If we can close up five dollars [per tonne] on canola…we’ll be in great shape,” an analyst commented, with the oilseed needing to fend off those declines in soyoil and crude oil.
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Canola exports remain lackluster as the Canadian Grain Commission report the year to day tally reached 4.63 million tonnes versus the 6.75 million this time last year. Expectations were for Canada to ship out seven million tonnes in 2023/24.
Statistics Canada is scheduled to publish its next grain stocks report on Tuesday. Another analyst said it will be “the most inconsequential report of them all” from StatCan this year.
There’s the possibility of a strike at Canada’s two largest railways, with workers able to walk off the job as early as May 22.
The Canadian dollar was slightly higher by mid-afternoon Friday with the loonie at 73.09 U.S. cents compared to Thursday’s close of 73.00.
There were 42,942 contracts traded on Friday, compared to the 35,396 contracts that changed hands on Thursday. Spreading accounted for 15,574 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola Jul 647.00 up 10.10 Nov 660.80 up 8.70 Jan 668.40 up 7.90 Mar 673.20 up 8.00
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Friday, but soyoil was unable to retain small increases and closed a pinch lower.
The United States Department of Agriculture announced a private sale for 122,000 tonnes of old crop soybeans to unknown destinations.
U.S. census data placed March soybean exports at 3.05 million tonnes, down 2.6 per cent from a year ago.
Excessively wet conditions continued to plague parts of southern Brazil while areas of the country’s north suffer from heat and dry conditions.
Consultancy StoneX kept its call on Brazil soybean production at 150.8 million tonnes.
The USDA attaché in Buenos Aires project the 2024/25 Argentina soybean crop at 51 million tonnes, up from their call of 49.5 million for 2023/24.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated the Argentina soybean harvest at more than 36 per cent complete with its production estimate at 51 million tonnes.
Another round of strikes have been set for Argentina, with transportation workers expected to hit the picket lines on Monday. The union for oilseed sector workers has yet to announce its upcoming plans after a two-day strike earlier this week.
CORN futures were slightly higher on Friday, with modest loses in crude oil holding back further gains.
Cool temperatures and rain were forecast for the U.S. Midwest through the weekend.
Census numbers put U.S. March corn exports at 5.89 million tonnes, jumping 19.8 per cent from a year ago.
StoneX projected Brazil corn production at 125.6 million tonnes, adding 1.37 million to its previous forecast.
The BAGE hacked three million tonnes from it estimate on Argentine corn output due to crop disease, bringing it to 46.5 million. About 22 per cent of the crop was combined.
WHEAT futures were stronger on Friday, with double-digit upticks in Chicago and Kansas City wheat.
The U.S. Census calculated 2.09 million tonnes of wheat were exported in March, the best for the month in three years.
Consultancy IKAR lopped off two million tonnes from its projection on Russian wheat, now at 91 million due to ongoing dry conditions in southern parts of the country.
Ukraine said it expects its 2024/25 wheat exports to fall by four million tonnes at 14 million.
Algeria bought 240,000 to 300,000 tonnes of wheat.
