By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Aug. 29 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures fell on Monday, after Statistics Canada (StatCan) released its latest production report.
In using its computer-based model, the federal agency has pegged 2022/23 canola production at 19.5 million tonnes, which was about in the middle of trade expectations. Earlier this year StatCan called for 18.4 million tonnes. Also, they revised 2021/22 production to 13.76 million, up from 12.6 million.
Given the data is about a month old and doesn’t account for the August heat that very likely curtailed some yields, there is skepticism in the trade. StatCan will tweak its findings for its Sept. 14, but anything more accurate won’t be available until the survey-based December report.
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Losses in Chicago soybeans and soyoil, as well as European rapeseed weighed on canola values. Small gains in the off session of Malaysian palm oil tried to temper further losses.
Despite good upticks in global crude oil prices, an analyst said the gains were largely ignored by the vegetable oil complex.
The Canadian dollar is a pinch lower at mid-afternoon as the loonie slipped to 76.89 U.S. cents, compared to Friday’s close 76.99.
There were 19,818 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 19,807 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 12,066 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola Nov 838.50 dn 17.30
Jan 845.80 dn 17.50
Mar 851.50 dn 17.10
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were weaker on Monday as the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found little change in current production estimates.
The tour, which wrapped up on Aug. 26, pointed to a United States soybean crop this year to yield 51.7 bushels per acre. That would result in a harvest of 4.54 billion bushels, slightly more than the current estimate from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The USDA issued its grain inspections report and for the week ended Aug. 25, outbound movements of soybeans were 436,851 tonnes, down 36.4 per cent from the previous week. The year-to-date shipments reached 56.44 million tonnes, about 2.95 million behind the same time last year.
The USDA will issue its crop progress report later this afternoon.
Indonesia boosted its palm oil export tax 67.6 per cent at US$124 per tonne. Also, the country’s government upped the requirement for palm-based biodiesel for B30 blending from 10.15 million kiloliters to now 11.03 million.
CORN futures were stronger on Monday as the Pro Farmer tour came to reduced production estimates.
The tour forecast U.S. corn yields at 168.1 bu./ac. which would produce 13.76 billion bushels, about 4.5 per cent less than the present USDA estimate.
U.S. corn export inspections were 689,052 tonnes on the week, falling 16.1 per cent. The year-to-date hit 54.59 million tonnes, 11.46 million behind last year’s pace.
WHEAT futures were stronger on Monday, due to spillover from corn and uncertainly surrounding Ukraine.
United Nations inspectors are on their way to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine to check it for any battle damage.
U.S. wheat export inspections were 520,791 tonnes, down 12.4 per cent from the previous week. The year-to-date tallied 5.01 million tonnes, 1.19 million back of this time last year.
Statistics Canada forecast 2022/23 wheat production at 34.57 million tonnes, which is slightly above trade guesses. This year’s output is to include 25.56 million tonnes of spring wheat and 6.47 million of durum. The federal agency revised 2021/22 production from 21.6 million tonnes to now 22.3 million.
