By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures leapt higher in heavy activity on Monday, propelled by speculative funds mostly likely liquidating their short positions.
An analyst said the next resistance level for the November contract is likely around C$685 to C$695 per tonne.
Despite the heatwave across the Prairies, the analyst said it will have little effect on canola past its blooming stage. However, later planted canola that’s still blooming will have suffered to some extent, but he said a very good harvest is likely ahead.
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Also, the November closed well above its major moving averages. Meanwhile, the canola crush margins moved very little with the November positions at C$95 to C$102 per tonne above the futures.
Sharp advances in the Chicago soy complex, along with more modest upticks in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil added more support to canola. Small losses in crude oil attempted to put a lid on further increases in the oilseeds.
Bloomberg reported that several energy and agricultural firms in the United States are gearing up for an increased canola crush. More domestic canola is expected to be grown in the U.S. to meet the biofuel requirements laid down by the Biden administration.
The Canadian dollar is lower by mid-afternoon Monday with the loonie at 72.73 U.S. cents compared to Friday’s close of 72.85.
There were 68,972 contracts traded on Monday, compared to the 58,623 contracts that changed hands on Friday. Spreading accounted for 25,278 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change
Canola Nov 673.10 up 26.90
Jan 677.80 up 26.10
Mar 679.80 up 24.10
May 677.10 up 19.00
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Monday, propelled by an excellent week of exports.
The United States Department of Agriculture issued its export inspections report and for the week ended July 18 shipments of soybeans came to 327,061 tonnes. That’s an increase of 46.4 per cent from the previous week. The year-to-date of 42.35 million tonnes remained well behind the 50.18 million.
The USDA is set to release its crop progress report this afternoon. The average trade guess expects soybean conditions to remain at 68 per cent good to excellent.
China reported its June soybean imports came to 11.11 million tonnes, with 9.72 million from Brazil. That’s up 2.2 per cent from the previous June. For the first half of 2024, China has import 34.43 million tonnes of soybeans from Brazil, up 16 per cent, while those from the U.S. fall 27 per cent at 12.20 million tonnes.
A report said Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 to 20 were up 39 to 41.5 per cent.
CORN futures were higher on Monday, in reaction to U.S. President Joe Biden announcing he will no longer run for re-election.
The U.S. weather outlook has called for a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain this week for the Corn Belt, but the high humidity could lead to several pop up showers. Areas outside of the Corn Belt could receive upwards to five inches of rain. Temperatures are forecast to exceed 35 degrees Celsius.
Conditions for U.S. corn are to remain at 68 per cent good to excellent.
The USDA announced a private sale for 133,000 tonnes of new crop corn to Mexico.
Outbound movements of U.S. corn were 970,539 tonnes, down 11 per cent from last week. Corn’s year-to-date rose to almost 45.58 million tonnes compared to nearly 34.29 million a year ago.
Ukraine reported its total grain shipments from January to June through the Romanian port of Constanta dropped 43.5 per cent at 4.24 million tonnes, due Ukraine increasing the use of its own ports.
WHEAT futures were stronger on Monday, due to expectations of less global production.
The market pegged U.S. spring wheat conditions at 76 per cent good to excellent, which would be a pinch higher from last week.
The USDA reported wheat export inspections of 237,965 tonnes, a drop of almost 62 per cent from a week ago. The year-to-date of 2.59 million tonnes remained ahead of last year’s 2.16 million.
France said its soft wheat crop was 52 per cent good to excellent for a five-point loss from the previous week. A year ago the wheat rated 80 per cent good to excellent.
A report said Iraq purchased 6.3 million tonnes of domestic wheat.
