ICE canola drops with large stocks

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

WINNIPEG, Sept. 3 – ICE Canada canola contracts were weaker Thursday morning, as Statistics Canada ending stocks numbers came in above trade estimates and the government agency also raised its year-ago numbers.
StatsCan pegged the country’s canola stocks, as of July 31, 2015, at 2.3 million tonnes, which was about 500,000 tonnes above the high end of trade estimates. The larger-than-expected carryout supplies were partially explained by upward revisions to the 2014 production and stocks numbers. Canadian canola supplies on July 31, 2014, are now pegged at 3.0 million tonnes, well above the 2.4 million tonnes that had been originally thought.

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StatsCan’s online production estimates were also revised. The 2014/15 crop is now pegged at 16.4 million tonnes, which compares with the previous estimate of 15.6 million tonnes and the 13.3 million tonnes predicted for 2015/16.
Harvest pressure added to the softer tone in canola, as producers make deliveries for cash flow needs and end users are only buying on a scale-down basis.
CBOT soyoil was higher in early activity, which provided some underlying support for canola.
Ideas that recent losses were looking overdone also helped limit the declines.
About 11,000 canola contracts had traded as of 8:45 CDT.
Milling wheat, durum, and barley futures were all untraded.
Prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton at 8:45 CDT:

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