North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Markets lacking direction

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, July 23 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were steady to higher on Tuesday, in another day of light activity.

A trader said canola will remain choppy for the time being, due to the lack of direction in the Chicago markets. In turn, Chicago waits on the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to issue its acreage report on August 12.

Crop conditions on the Prairies were about 60 good to excellent, according to the trader. Saskatchewan was at 42 per cent good to excellent with Alberta and Manitoba at about 70 per cent.

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The Canadian dollar has begun to provide support for canola, as it fell to 76.12 U.S. cents from Monday’s close of 76.32.

There were 10,972 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 12,111 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 2,756 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 447.50 up 0.50
Jan 454.60 up 0.70
Mar 461.50 up 0.60
May 467.20 up 0.50

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were lower on Tuesday, as the markets lack a clear direction to go either way.

For the most part, CBOT continues to wait for the revised acreage report to be released by USDA on August 12. Not only will the report indicate corn and soybean acres that were planted, but also those allocated to prevent planting.

The USDA issued its crop progress report for the week ending July 21 on Monday. Soybeans were unchanged from the previous report, at 54 per cent good to excellent condition, and in line with trade expectations.

USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue announced farmers who qualified for federal aid due to the U.S./China trade war will receive at least US$15 per acre. Perdue said more announcements will be made next week.

CORN futures were stronger on Tuesday, due to technical buying.

The USDA crop report showed a small change in corn, with the latest ratings at 57 per cent good excellent, down one point from the previous week.

WHEAT futures were mixed on Tuesday, with Minneapolis down three-quarters of a cent per bushel, Chicago unchanged and Kansas City up two and quarter cents.

Spring wheat conditions in the U.S. slipped from 79 per cent good to excellent to 76 per cent, which met trade expectations. Most notable was the excellent rating having declined from 14 per cent to 10, according to the USDA. The amount of spring wheat headed out was up from 78 per cent to 92.

The winter wheat harvest in the U.S. increased to 69 per cent complete, up from 57 per cent the previous report, but short of trade expectations of 73 per cent complete. Also, the harvest remained behind the five-year average of 79 per cent complete.

Wheat production Russia has been projected downward. UkrAgroConult pegged production at 76.70 million tonnes for a drop of 2 million. Meanwhile the Institute of Agricultural Studies estimated the crop to come in at 76.10 million tonnes.

Reports stated Russia wheat harvest has brought in 30.81 million tonnes so far.

APK-Inform estimate Ukraine’s wheat crop at 27.49 million tonnes, an increase of 10 per cent from the firm’s previous forecast.

Taiwan purchased 90,650 tonnes of wheat from the U.S.

Japanese issued a tender for approximately 114,200 tonnes of wheat.

Egypt acquired 120,000 tonnes from Ukraine, with 120,000 tonnes from