Farmers seeking the best market for their barley need look no farther than their own backyards.
Alberta has been a premium market for three years and anyone with barley to sell should deliver for cash now, say industry analysts.
“The southern Alberta marketplace has been at a premium to the world market for the last three years,” said Doug Chambers, a trader with Scoular Grain.
The perception remains that the California dairy market is hottest because several years ago buyers paid $4 (U.S.) per bushel for heavyweight barley. That market has plummeted and now Europe is trying to get rid of surplus grain in California with an enticing subsidy of $61 (U.S.) a tonne, said Chambers. That delivery is expected to arrive in Stockton, Calif., sometime this month in spite of protests from American barley growers.
Read Also
The Western Producer Livestock Report: July 17, 2025
U.S. hogs averaged $106.69 on a carcass basis July 11, down from $110.21 July 4.
Meanwhile, the hungry Alberta feedlot industry is looking for barley. Through October to January, Lethbridge cash prices were up to $155 per tonne.
This week farmers could expect to be paid $133-$135 per tonne delivered to Lethbridge. Chambers expects these prices to hold throughout May and into June at about $132 per tonne.
While farmers are out seeding, they may miss the boat, said Paul Cassidy, a market analyst with Mitcon Inc. in Calgary.
As spring wears on, cash barley could drop $20 by the last half of June, said Cassidy.
“The western producer has chosen to ignore the information in the marketplace. Unfortunately they felt they should have higher flat prices. The farmers chose to ignore the best price for barley in the world.”
Prices can’t hold for several reasons.
As this set of cattle is finished, there won’t be as many replacement calves arriving in feedyards to eat the barley.
In addition, this spring’s calf crop is smaller than in recent years and producers are turning them out on grass. If the pastures dry out, they’ll be sent to feedlots earlier.
Oversupply looms
If normal weather prevails, cattle will stay on grass as long as possible and a lot of barley could cause an avalanche in the market as farmers clean their bins toward the end of the crop year. That barley may have no place to go.
“That’s the scenario we’re shaping up to,” said Cassidy.
Farmers must also be aware of a softening market for feed grains worldwide. A big corn crop in the United States and financial problems in Asia could have a domino effect. Lessening demand in Asia has already driven down hog and cattle markets, which could then affect the barley market.
“The grain guys have been buffered from that and he’s starting to feel it now,” Cassidy said.
Market analyst Errol Anderson, of Pro-Market Communications, agrees prices could take a sudden drop. He is advising growers to deliver any feed barley in the first half of May because this summer will be a bear market for barley.
“Once growers get more time and deliveries resume, we’ll start to slip.”
Anderson also said the cash market is higher than the latest pool return outlook.
Using the PROs, the farmer could net anywhere from 60 cents to $1.60 a bushel.
