The contraction of Canada’s hog breeding herd has slowed but not stopped despite an improved market.
Statistics Canada’s April 1 hogs-on-farm report showed a slight increase in the total number of hogs to 11.81 million, compared to 11.65 million last year at the same time.
However, the breeding herd declined 0.2 percent from last year to 1.308 million.
That contraction was less than in recent years but shows producers don’t yet feel comfortable enough to begin rebuilding.
High feed costs are more than offsetting the benefits of the stronger hog market.
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Hog prices have been at historic highs this spring but are not that much higher than last year at the same time.
Because of the strong loonie, Canadian cash hog prices are up only four percent over last year compared to an increase of nine percent in the United States.
However, feed prices are much higher than last year, with barley up 43 percent and feed wheat and feed peas up 40 percent. U.S. corn has increased more than 100 percent.
A market commentary about the U.S. situation from Jim Long of Genesus Genetics said hogs were up $27 per head in the third week of April, but the cost of feeding that animal with corn had risen $32.
It is no wonder producers are not increasing their breeding herds.
In Canada, there was an east-west split in the breeding herd trend.
Herd numbers declined by 15,800 head in the West, with Alberta and Manitoba down but Saskatchewan up slightly.
In the East, the breeding herd declined in Quebec but increased in Ontario with an overall gain of 10,000.
The changes were slight and the bottom line is that the herd has stabilized without near term prospects for growth.
Producers surveyed by Statistics Canada anticipated no significant changes in the number of sows expected to farrow during the second and third quarters of this year.
It is a similar story in the United States.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s March 1 hog herd survey showed the herd at 63.964 million head, up 0.7 percent from a year ago. But that increase was largely due to better herd management as more young pigs survived to maturity.
The USDA put the breeding herd at 5.78 million head, up 0.5 percent from a year ago, and the market hog supply at nearly 58.185 million, up 0.7 from a year ago.
