Chicken and fish are edging out pork and beef as the world’s most popular meats, said a British market researcher.
Pork was the world’s most common meat but lower incomes following the economic crash of 2008 have changed the demand curve, said Rupert Claxton of GIRA Consultancy and Research.
“Poultry over the next 10 years will be the number one meat, taking over from pig meat,” he said at the recent Canada Beef Export Federation annual meeting in Calgary.
Chicken is cheap and easy to produce compared to red meat. Claxton predicted a 33 percent meat consumption growth in China, with fish likely to dominate.
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“Beef is still a niche market there,” he said.
Despite setbacks, Canadian beef exports are improving with renewed opportunities to get into Asia, the European Union and Russia. It needs to enter these regions as a niche market supplier offering high quality grain fed beef rather than trying to compete against Australia or South America, which offer a lower priced, different quality product, he said.
Canada recently signed a deal with China to accept boneless beef from youthful animals.
Japan and South Korea offer some opportunity, but Australia has been the big winner in the last five years when it gained a large share of the Japanese markets.
“They will be a presence for another 10 years. They established good connections and they will keep specific customers,” Claxton said.
Canada lost its access to South Korea in 2003 due to BSE. Trade officials from Canada and South Korea met Sept. 27-28 to discuss the issue and a case is before the World Trade Organization.
The EU is a large meat consumer but people are more likely to improve the quality rather than quantity of what they eat. Canada also faces a continuing tariff and a ban against beef produced using growth hormones.
In Russia, more investment is directed at poultry and hog production because meat supplies can be built faster at a lower cost.
Brazil and Argentina already have good access into Europe and Russia, offering a lower quality, more affordable product.
However, Brazil has suffered setbacks due to inadequate traceability records to show the region was free of foot-and-mouth disease, Claxton said.
It also experienced a massive currency spike, which made it less competitive, but still managed to peak as a world beef powerhouse in 2007-08. Brazilian packers were fixing prices on what they would pay producers for cattle so farmers left the industry and used the land for other crops, he said.
Argentina produces good quality beef at lower prices, which sells well in European steak houses. However, the government wanted its people to buy cheap, local beef rather than exporting it at higher prices so export restrictions were imposed. Farmers felt the pinch when they lost the export profits and also struggled against drought, so they cut back production.
“They are not going to become a big trader globally,” Claxton said.
Uruguay has had export success and some disease problems.
“They are never going to be a big beef producer but like Argentina, it is good quality and they can keep their customers happy,” he said.
CBEF president Ted Haney said Uruguay developed a traceability system in less than a year, vaccinated its herd against foot-and-mouth disease and got back into Europe.
The United States remains the big consumer globally, taking in about 20 percent of the world’s available beef. Expected increases are partly linked to continuing population growth and some interest in higher consumption. However, Canada needs to wean itself off the U.S. market, said Claxton.
