BASHAW, Alta. – With low carryover and a hungry domestic livestock industry, the forecast for Canadian barley is hot.
And the Canadian Wheat Board has no quarrel with farmers who opt to sell into this rising market, said commissioner Lorne Hehn at a board district meeting here.
“If you can get a better price, take it,” he said.
Although offshore feed barley prices are favorable, the board has been unable to offer much to overseas customers because farmers aren’t delivering.
“It’s difficult to attract higher deliveries when the offboard market is so strong,” said Ramzy Yelda of the board.
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Current central Alberta prices are $2.30 to $2.40 a bushel while the board is offering $1.90, said Errol Anderson of Palliser Commodities in Calgary. In Saskatchewan, feed barley is worth about $2 a bushel at the farmgate.
Domestic prices were also triggered by the end of the grain transportation subsidy. That announcement saw November western barley shoot skyward, said Anderson.
“Loss of the Crow has actually been good news for the market,” said Anderson, who is forecasting a hot barley market next year. A new set of higher freight rates could also influence farmers’ decisions to sell to local feed buyers rather than pursue exports.
Also, carryover stocks are half of what they were last year and the expanding feeding industry in Alberta and Saskatchewan will keep the demand for grain strong, said Anderson. He doesn’t anticipate the American corn crop to displace barley in southern Alberta feedlots.
Although it’s difficult to predict what the numbers will do before the crop is seeded, a low Canadian dollar should maintain a good export market, said Yelda.
When the Australian barley crop comes off in December, Yelda is projecting increased international competition among sellers offering feed grain. Australia should make a strong comeback after the 1994 yield drop off of 65 percent due to drought.
The largest importers of Canadian barley in order of quantity are the United States, Japan, China, Saudi Arabia and Colombia. The big difference in this marketing period is that the U.S. is taking more malting barley than feed. More than half the barley exports will go for malt rather than feed, said Hehn.
Last year the U.S. offered a better return for feed barley but in this selling period, Japan is the best deal. Feed exports to Japan are expected to achieve a record high.
With high demand for malt from customers like the U.S and China, the board is crying for malting barley. If samples were rejected earlier, Hehn suggested re-submitting them because specifications have been lowered.
“If we had more two-row with 95 percent germination we’d be able to sell more, but we don’t. We’ve dropped the germination level down to 93 percent,” he said.
