Year end U.S. soybean stocks smaller, corn larger than expected – global wheat a burden in USDA report

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Published: April 12, 2016

WASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) – U.S. soybean supplies will be smaller than expected due to bigger imports by China, the world’s top buyer of the oilseed, the USDA said in its monthly supply and demand report.

Domestic wheat supplies will be the highest since 1987 due to weakening demand in the feed sector, but were in line with expectations.

The report also raised the government’s corn ending stocks forecast as usage cuts from the feed, residual, food, seed and industrial sectors outstripped increased demand from ethanol producers.

USDA said that wheat ending stocks at the end of the 2015-16 marketing year would be 976 million bushels, up 10 million bu. from its March outlook. Analysts had been expecting wheat ending stocks of 977 million bu., based on the average of estimates given in a Reuters poll.

The government lowered its expectations for feed and residual wheat usage to 140 million bu. from 150 million bu..

Soybean ending stocks were cut 3.3 percent to 445 million bu., lower than the average analyst estimate of 454 million bu.

USDA pegged corn ending stocks at 1.862 billion bu., up 25 million bu. from its March outlook. Analysts, on average, had forecast corn ending stocks of 1.845 billion bu..

On the global front, world ending stocks of wheat were raised to a bigger-than-expected 239.26 million tonnes, topping the high end of analysts’ forecasts that ranged from 235.14 million tonnes to 238.50 million tonnes. Increases to harvest estimates in the European Union and Argentina raised global wheat production to a record 733.14 million tonnes, USDA said.

USDA also raised its outlook for global corn and soybean ending stocks to 208.91 million tonnes and 79.02 million tonnes, respectively. The average of analysts’ forecasts was 207.35 million tonnes for global corn ending stocks and 78.96 million tonnes for soybeans.

USDA raised its outlook for Argentine corn production by one million tonnes to 28 million tonnes due to beneficial rain during February and March. It also boosted its Argentine soy harvest view to 59 million tonnes from 58.50 million tonnes.

Brazil soybean production was left unchanged at 100 million tonnes. Brazil corn production was seen at 84 million tonnes, also steady with the March outlook.

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