Weather drives crop markets

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Published: April 11, 2011

New crop canola futures rose Friday as weather continues to frustrate farmers hoping to begin seeding.

Old crop canola edged lower on weak demand and the rising Canadian dollar.

For the week, the May contract fell $20.60 per tonne compared to the close on April 8.

The new crop November contract fell only $9.80 over the same period, reflecting worries about seeding.

Commodities generally felt downward pressure on Friday from Goldman Sachs restating its advisory to sell commodities and underweight that investment class for three to six months. It particularly has focused on crude oil, arguing that there is currently no shortage and recent high prices are not justified.

However, it believes that later this year the supply-demand balance will tighten and push oil higher.

Generally Goldman Sachs is bullish commodities, including soybeans and what it calls “key grains” over the 12-month period.

Hard red wheat in central and eastern Kansas has seen one or two centimetres of rain in the last day helping revive the crop there. The rain is moving into the Midwest and Delta areas where totals are expected to increase, delaying corn seeding.

The rain again appeared to miss the driest areas of western Oklahoma and Texas.

The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 117,474 tonnes of canola in the week ending April 13, up about eight percent from the week before.

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola May 11$568.30,  down $2.00

Canola Jul 11 $576.90,    down $2.20

Canola Nov 11 $573.70,  up $2.20

Canola Jan 12 $580.80,  up $2.50

 

The previous day’s best basis was $6.20 under the May contract according to ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg.

The May contract’s Relative Strength Index was 43. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.

Western Barley May 11 $200, unchanged

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans May 11 $13.3175, up 0.75 cents

Soybeans Jul 11 $13.4325,   up 0.54 cents

Soybeans Nov 11 $13.3975,   down 5.5 cents

Corn May 11 $7.42,    down 12.25 cents

Corn Dec 11 $6.56,    up 0.5 cents

Oats May 11 $3.83,    up 1.0 cents

Oats Dec 11 $4.02,    up 1.0 cents

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat May 11$8.89,    down 0.75 cents

Spring Wheat Jul 11$8.9775,    up 0.25 cents

Spring Wheat Dec 11$9.1375,    up 1.5 cents

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1 to $108.11 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was $1.0400 US, up from $1.0389 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 96.15 cents Cdn.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index fell 22.68 points, or 0.16 percent, to 13,799.12.

For the week, it dropped 2.88 percent.

 

The Standard and Poor’s 500 index on Friday rose 5.16 points, or 0.39 percent, to 1319.68.

For the week, the Dow fell 0.3 percent and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq each fell 0.6 percent.

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