Winnipeg, May 6 – Canadian canola and wheat supplies are much tighter heading into the final months of the 2015-16 crop year than they were at the same point a year ago, Statistics Canada’s latest stocks report shows.
The country’s canola stocks as of March 31 were pegged at 7.49 million tonnes by StatsCan in a report release May 6.
That compares with 8.33 million at the same point last year.
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The tighter supplies were in line with trade guesses, although most industry participants were anticipating an even smaller number.
“Usage is strong, and there’s no obvious reason why it won’t continue to be strong,” said canola broker Ken Ball of PI Financial.
He added that solid demand and a tightening supply situation, together with uncertain weather conditions facing the 2016-17 crop, will sustain commercial buying interest.
Analyst Wayne Palmer of Agri-Trend Marketing said canola stocks were likely much tighter than what StatsCan reported, given the anecdotal reports coming from farmers.
Canadian wheat stocks (including durum), as of March 31, were pegged at 13.79 million tonnes, well below the 18.09 million tonnes at the same point last year and the tightest stocks at that date since 2008.
Canadian wheat exports have been strong this year, and the wheat stocks were in line with trade expectations.
Barley was one of the few crops that saw supplies rise on the year, with stocks as of March 31 coming in at 3.81 million tonnes. That was up by 400,000 tonnes from the same point last year and above average trade guesses.
“There’s more barley out there than we really need,” said Palmer.
