Old crop corn futures jumped up the expanded 45 cent per bushel limit in early trading Friday morning, but its coattails are not as strong today and other crop prices are down slightly.
At 9:40 am CST May canola was down $1.40 at $591.90 per tonne. More snow is forecast for southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan in the couple of days. It is expected to fall mainly south of the TransCanada Highway.
Old crop corn is enjoying carry over support from Thursday’s USDA stocks report, which showed March 1 corn stocks were tighter than expected. Prices had to rise to ration demand.
On Thursday all corn futures month rose the 30-cent limit. The limit was increased to 45 cents on Friday and it hit that market, but then edged lower by a few cents.
New crop corn is up more modestly at $6.3625 per bushel, an increase of 11 cents over Thursday’s close.
USDA’s planting intentions report on Thursday showed farmers intend to sow 92.178 million acres to corn compared to the range of pre-report estimates of 91-92.6 million. Last year’s area was 88.192 million.
Wheat futures at the opening of the market Friday jumped higher, but then fell back and were trading below the Thursday close.
The stocks and planting intentions reports were higher than expected for wheat and its strength Thursday was mostly due to corn.
In morning trade Friday soybeans and canola were lower on profit taking and on talk that China might have cancelled some supply purchases it had previously made.
The tight corn supply number in Thursday’s report indicated that demand from livestock feeders and the ethanol industry was stronger than expected, despite high prices.
The numbers in the planting report were not a big surprise, but with stocks by the end of the year expected to be even tighter than had been thought, seeded acreage goals might have to be increased.
The USDA report likely did not alter the battle for acreage in Canada.
The smaller U.S. soybean number and larger spring wheat number would in some circumstances favour canola over wheat in Canada. However, the tight corn situation is supporting wheat prices, keeping them competitive with canola.
Also, expensive corn will likely cause greater use of feed wheat in livestock rations.
Another factor to continue watching, as always, is the weather. We know all about the worries inherent in the late spring and heavy snow pack in Canada. In the U.S. Midwest and northern plains they are also worried about wet weather and late seeding.
And drought still stalks the hard red winter wheat crop in Texas, Oklahoma and western Kansas.
Soybean area was 76.61 million acres compared to the range of 75-78.5 million. Last year’s area was 77.40 million
All wheat area was 58.021 million acres compared to the range of 56-58.4 million. Last year’s area was 53.60 million
Spring wheat area was 14.43 million compared to the range of 13-14.31 million. Last year 13.70 million
Durum area was 2.37 million compared to the range of 2.4-2.8 million. Last year 2.57 million acres were seeded.
Aside from the major crops, American farmers intend to seed more canola and barley this year, but fewer oat and dry bean acres.
Farmers told the USDA they intend to seed 1.612 million acres of canola, up 11 percent from last year.
North Dakota will lead the way with 1.42 million acres, up 11 percent from last year.
Oklahoma farmers intend to seed 100,000 acres, up 67 percent and Montana growers intend to seed 25,000 acres, up 43 percent.
Farmers said they expected to shrink oat area to 2.84 million acres, down 10 percent.
Barley area will be up slightly at 2.95 million acres, up three percent.
Sunflower area is expected to decline to 1.81 million acres, down eight percent.
Flax is expected to be steady at 420,000 acres.
Dry beans are expected to be planted on 1.3 million acres, down 32 percent.
Lentil area is slated at 710,000 acres, up eight percent.
Pea area is expected to be down at 586,000 acres, down 22 percent.
Chickpeas are expected to be down at 138,900 acres, down five percent.
