LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) – The International Grains Council (IGC) has raised its forecast for world grain production in 2017-18, with the crop now expected to be the second-largest in history.
The inter-governmental body, in a monthly report published on Thursday, put total grains production at 2.069 billion tonnes, up 19 million tonnes from its previous forecast and now only trailing last season’s record 2.133 billion.
Global corn production was seen at 1.029 billion tonnes, up 12 million tonnes from its previous forecast but still below the 2016-17 record of 1.079 billion.
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The IGC said the improved outlook mainly reflected upward revisions for Argentina and the United States.
The wheat production forecast in 2017-18 was raised by six million tonnes to 748 million, boosted by higher forecasts for Russia, Canada, India and the European Union.
“After an enormous harvest and with logistical constraints likely to limit exports, Russia’s wheat inventories could be the biggest in a quarter of a century,” the IGC said.
The estimate for the global wheat crop remained below the previous season’s 754 million tonnes.
“Despite reduced output, heavy old-crop stocks will mean overall grains availabilities will be only a little lower year on year,” the IGC said.
Grains consumption in 2017-18 was seen climbing to a record 2.096 billion tonnes, up from the previous season’s 2.088 billion tonnes, with food, feed and industrial uses all potentially at new highs.
“This will probably result in some depletion of world stocks at the end of 2017-18, the first fall in five years, with maize in the United States and China accounting for most of the drawdown,” the IGC said.
Global soybean production in 2017-18 was seen at 348 million tonnes, up one million tonnes from the previous month’s projection but still below the 2016-17 record of 351 million tonnes.
Soybean consumption was seen rising to 351 million tonnes, up from 338 million tonnes in 2016-17.
“Since world (soybean) use is set to advance to an all-time peak, aggregate end-season carryovers are predicted to contract by six percent year on year,” the IGC said.
