Flax growers hoping for a repeat of 2008 historic prices will likely be disappointed.
Chuck Penner of Left Field Commodity Research told farmers attending Flax Day 2011 at Crop Production Week in Saskatoon Monday that the market is near its peak.
A repeat of 2008, when prices soared to more than $20 per bushel, is unlikely because crude oil prices are not contributing to a market frenzy. Three years ago, crude oil soared to more than $140 per barrel. This year, crude is around $90.
European buyers will substitute cheaper petroleum for linseed when the latter gets too expensive.
Penner expects a steady market until the St. Lawrence Seaway spring opening sparks a short-term rally of about $1 per bushel.
He forecasts that 2011 acres will rise, but not enough to depress new crop prices.
Hassles associated with testing for Triffid and shortages of quality seed will likely limit the area increase to about 1.4 million acres.
More detail about Penner’s presentation will be in the Markets section of the Jan. 13 Western Producer.
