Winnipeg, March 21 – Solid demand for Canadian flax, combined with small production, has driven prices up, which could tempt producers making seeding choices this spring.
Last year, Canadian flax seeded acreage was down 43 percent from the previous year,but yields were good. Production fell to 579,000 tonnes, and with the carry in, the total supply was 863,000 tonnes, down from 1.052 million the previous year.
But demand is on par with bigger crop years, said Don Kerr, president of the Flax Council of Canada.
Earlier this year, Europe changed its maximum residue limit for the herbicide haloxyfop, curbing demand for Russian and Kazakhstani seed, creating a gap that Canada’s crops are able to fill.
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Exports to China are expected to stay the same as last year, Kerr said, estimating that level at around 350,000 tonnes.
“Even though we’re seeing increases with some of that Kazakhstani seed leaking into China,” Kerr said.
But he expects demand from the U.S. to be lower, as the country increased production last year.
Delivered elevator flax prices range around $11.75 to $12.28 per bushel, which is up $1.23 to $1.44 on the year, data from Prairie Ag Hotwire says. New crop prices are around $12.50 a bu. in Western Canada.
Profitability is a key factor farmers consider when deciding what crops to grow, which means flax may see increased acres this year.
“I think there could be a rebound in acres in Manitoba this year, simply because prices have improved,” Kerr said, adding that flax in the province will likely compete with soybeans.
However, growth in Manitoba is expected to be limited, especially compared with Saskatchewan.
Saskatchewan plants the large majority of flax acres in Canada. Last year, producers in the province switched acres from flax into pulse production.
Pulse acreage this spring will likely be influence on whether India carries through with its plan to require that its pulse imports be fumigated in the exporting country.
“So we may see a bit of an increase in flax acres in Saskatchewan this year,” Kerr said.
“And we might see a slight reduction in pulses because we saw such a huge increase last year.”
But Kerr added that flax production will likely not hit the level seen two years ago at 1.64 million acres.
“I think it’s going to be tough to get back to that level,” he said.
Agriculture Canada’s March grain and oilseed supply and disposition report estimates this year’s flax area at 1.05 million acres, compared with last year’s 930,000.
