Grain markets jockeyed for position on Wednesday ahead of Friday’s USDA production and demand report that will update the department’s take on drought damage to U.S. crops.
Oilseed and grain prices rose today.
Early in the day November canola fell below the psychologically important $600 level, but recovered to post a modest gain compared to the 1.5 percent gains in soybeans, driven higher by rumours that China had bought up to a million tonnes of U.S. soybeans.
Canola, which has higher oil content than soybeans, is more closely following soybean oil futures, which also posted a small gain today.
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Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures hit their highest level in more than a week on Thursday as technical buying helped the market recover from a three-month low reached on Monday, analysts said.
November canola closed at $603.10, up 70 cents.
Wheat market were under pressure early on word from Russia’s deputy prime minister that he saw no need for curbs on wheat exports, at least for this calendar year.
There had been speculation that the government might ration exports to conserve supplies from the smaller wheat crop there.
Russia stopped exports for a year following the severe drought of 2010.
• Weather models forecast rain in the Midwest in the next couple of days and next week but amounts are not expected to be great. The moisture could help late season soybeans but will arrive too late for corn.
• The average trade estimate for corn production is 11 billion bushels, versus 14 million expected back in June and about 13 billion in July. The range in the Reuters poll is 9.86 billion to a high of 11.89 billion. The average yield estimate is 127.34 bushels per acre.
• The average estimate for soybeans 2.817 with an average yield of 37.75 bu. per acre.
The production range is 2.696 billion to 2.963 billion.
• The trade’s average estimate for spring wheat is 484 million bushels, with a range of 444 million to 542 million.
In July, USDA forecast 472 million.
• The trade’s durum forecast is 82 million bushels, the same as the July USDA forecast.
• The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said July was the hottest month in the continental United States on record, beating the hottest month in the Dust Bowl summer of 1936.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Nov 12 $603.10, up $0.70 +0.12%
Canola Jan 13 $607.50, up $1.40 +0.23%
Canola Mar 13 $609.50, up $2.00 +0.33%
Canola May 13 $605.30, up $1.50 +0.25%
Western Barley Oct 12 $265.00, unchanged
Western Barley Dec 12 $270.00, unchanged
Milling Wheat Oct 12 $300.90, unchanged
Milling Wheat Mar 13 $316.50, unchanged
Durum Wheat Oct 12 $309.00, unchanged
Durum Wheat Dec 12 $313.50, unchanged
Durum Wheat Mar 13 $320.10, unchanged
Barley Oct 12 $264.50, unchanged
Barley Dec 12 $269.50, unchanged
Barley Mar 13 $272.50, unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans (P) Aug 12 $16.30, up 24.75 +1.54%
Soybeans (P) Sep 12 $16.00, up 23.5 +1.49%
Soybeans (P) Nov 12 $15.8125, up 15.5 +0.99%
Soybeans (P) Jan 13 $15.74, up 12.75 +0.82%
Corn (P) Sep 12 $8.1075, up 14.75 +1.85%
Corn (P) Dec 12 $8.165, up 16.0 +2.00%
Corn (P) Mar 13 $8.135, up 9.25 +1.15%
Oats (P) Sep 12 $3.7575, up 5.5 +1.49%
Oats (P) Dec 12 $3.7725, up 5.0 +1.34%
Oats (P) Mar 13 $3.775, up 4.25 +1.14%
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat Sep 12 $9.4525, up 9.0 +0.96%
Spring Wheat Dec 12 $9.525, up 6.25 +0.66%
Spring Wheat Mar 13 $9.6275, up 8.5 +0.89%
Spring Wheat May 13 $9.61, up 5.0 +0.52%
At noon the Bank of Canada Canadian dollar rate was $1.0053 US, up from $1.0036 the day before. The U.S. dollar was 99.47 cents Cdn.
Crude oil in New York was $93.35 per barrel, down 32 cents.
In early tallies:
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 82.41 points, or 0.69 percent, at 11,781.09.
The Dow Jones industrial average crept up 7.04 points, or 0.05 percent, to end at 13,175.64.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index edged up 0.87 of a point, or 0.06 percent, to 1,402.22.
But the Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 4.61 points, or 0.15 percent, to 3,011.25.
