Modest progress on the euro debt crisis, falling U.S. unemployment and a forecast for dry weather in Brazil lifted canola futures on Friday.
January canola closed at $502.90, up $2.40 on the day.
Over the week the contract was almost flat. Nearby soybeans rose 2.9 percent on the week.
• Canada’s economy lost 18,600 jobs in November following a fall of 54,000 in October, Statistics Canada said on Friday. The unemployment rate climbed to 7.4 percent from 7.3 percent.
• The U.S. report for November showed moderate jobs growth.
The unemployment rate dropped to 8.6 percent, a 2-½ year low, from nine percent in October. But optimism was limited because a key reason for decline was that a large number of people stopped looking for work.
• Statistics Canada releases its final crop estimate of the year on Dec. 6. The general view of the last StatsCan report in October was that it was conservative and that the canola crop could be about one million tonnes more than reported
Reuters news service surveyed analysts for their expectations for the coming report.
The average of the guesses for canola was 13.7 million tonnes, up from StatsCan’s October forecast of 12.93 million and last year’s 12.77 million.
The average of analysts’ estimates for wheat is 24.5 million, up from StatsCan’s October forecast of 24.16 and last year’s 23.17 million.
Durum is seen at four million tonnes. StatsCan 3.94 million and last year 3.03 million.
Barley is seen at eight million tonnes compared to the October forecast of 7.9 million and last year’s 7.6 million.
Oats, peas and flax estimates are also a little higher than StatsCan’s October numbers.
• The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 133,171 tonnes of canola in the week ending Nov. 30. That was up almost one percent from the previous week. It represents a 91 percent capacity use.
• China’s government says the country produced 191.75 million tonnes of corn this year, an increase of 8.2 percent over last year. That is higher than the 180-185 million tonnes that analysts expected.
Of the total 2011 grain output, rice production increased 2.6 percent on the year also to the highest ever at 200.78 million tonnes, and wheat was up 2.4 percent to 117.92 million tonnes, the second highest ever,
• France and Germany are reaching a consensus that euro zone economies need to be bound more closely if the single currency is to survive. That would require a change in the EU treaty to give the European Commission the ability to discipline governments that overspend.
This report will be updated one stock markets close and the canola basis is available.
Canola Jan 12 $502.30, up $2.40 (+0.48%)
Canola Mar 12 $502.20, up $2.40 (+0.48%)
Canola May 12 $503.20, up $3.00 (+0.60%)
Canola Jul 12 $504.00, up $2.70 (+0.54%)
The previous day’s best basis narrowed to $1.57 under the January contract.
The January contract’s 14-day Relative Strength Index was 38.
Western Barley Dec 11 $217.00, unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans Jan 12 $11.3575, up 7.75 cents (+0.69%)
Soybeans Mar 12 $11.4625, up 7.75 (+0.68%)
Soybeans May 12 $11.5625, up 7.25 (+0.63%)
Corn Dec 11 $5.865, down 8.25 (-1.39%)
Corn Mar 12 $5.9525, down 6.25 (-1.04%)
Oats Dec 11 $3.18, down 4.0 (-1.24%)
Oats Mar 12 $3.15, down 5.0 (-1.56%)
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat Dec 11 $8.56, up 1.5 (+0.18%)
Spring Wheat Mar 12 $8.445, up 12.25 (+1.47%)
Spring Wheat May 12 $8.25, up 12.75 (+1.57%)
Nearby light crude oil in New York rose 76 cents to $100.96 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 98.38 cents US, up from 98.29 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0165 Cdn.
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite unofficially closed down 38.20 points, or 0.32 percent, at 12,075.09.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.38 points, or 0.03 percent, to 1,244.20.
Over the week the TSX soared 5.3 percent, its biggest gain in two years.
The Dow rose seven percent, the S&P 500 rose 7.4 percent and the Nasdaq rose 7.6 percent.
