WINNIPEG, Aug. 19 (CNS Canada) – Canaryseed carry out might be 10 times what Agriculture Canada pegged it at, says a producer and industry leader.
Ending stocks for the recently finished 2015-16 crop year are currently estimated at only 5,000 tonnes, according to the July Agriculture Canada Outlook for Principal Field Crops report.
However, that number is way lower than it should be, according to David Nobbs, general manager of Canpulse Foods and current chair of the Canaryseed Development Commission of Saskatchewan. He also farms the crop.
“I say (carry-out) is 50,000 tonnes, they’re completely wrong…because marked product is coming to market and we won’t have harvest for at least four to six weeks and we’re still shipping,” Nobbs said.
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Agriculture Canada has forecast that prices should would rise because of its expectation for tighter year end stock and a seeded area that is down by 20 percent this year.
But Nobb thinks that price forecast is wrong due to his forecast of much larger carry over.
“The canary market is weak, demand hasn’t been great. Mexico has bought significant quantities but we’re kind of at a stalemate,” Nobbs said.
“The market has been about C22 to 23 cents today but buyers are looking for 21 cents, so it’s a bit of a standoff.”
Canaryseed crop conditions look good overall, Nobbs said, putting additional pressure on prices.
“There are some disease concerns, some lodging concerns, but I think production is definitely going to have the 150,000 tonnes required for the birdfeed market,” Nobb said.
Statistics Canada releases its first official estimates on the size of this year’s crop on Aug. 23.
Canada grew 149,000 tonnes of canaryseed in 2015-16, according to Statistics Canada.
