Winnipeg, July 21 – Canadian farmers will grow considerably less wheat and canola in 2015-16 than earlier thought, according to updated grain and oilseed supply-demand estimates from Agriculture Canada released July 21.
Ag Canada’s market analysis division forecast total production of the eight major grains and oilseeds for 2015-16 at 70.787 million tonnes, which was down from their previous forecast of 75.285 million and the 2014-15 level of 73.589 million .
Wheat, barley, and canola saw the largest downward revisions, given acreage adjustments and expectations for below-trend yields in the dry regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
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The government agency said further yield reductions were possible in subsequent reports if the dryness persists.
The eight major grains and oilseeds include: canola, flaxseed, soybeans, wheat, oats, barley, corn and rye.
Total ending stocks for the major grains and oilseeds are expected to total 7.465 million tonnes by the end of the 2015-16 crop year, down from the previous projection of 8.995 million. Ending stocks for 2014-15 were pegged at 11.168 million tonnes.
Total exports were forecast at 38.335 million tonnes for 2015-16, down from the June estimate of 40.080 million . Exports in 2014-15 were estimated at 42.235 million tonnes.
Total domestic usage of the various grains and oilseeds for the 2015-16 crop year was forecast at 37.852 million tonnes, which would be down from the 38.953 million forecast in June. For 2014-15, domestic usage was pegged at 40.284 million tonnes.
Domestic usage numbers include food and industrial use as well as feed, waste, and dockage. In million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
| Prod | Prod | Prod | |
| 2015/16 | 2015/16 | 2014/15 | |
| 21-Jul | 18-Jun | ||
| All Wheat | 27.1 | 29.7 | 29.281 |
| Durum | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.193 |
| Barley | 6.9 | 7.94 | 7.119 |
| Corn | 12.18 | 12.23 | 11.487 |
| Oats | 3.2 | 3.76 | 2.908 |
| Canola | 14.3 | 14.925 | 15.555 |
| Flaxseed | 0.95 | 0.92 | 0.847 |
| Soybeans | 5.8 | 5.45 | 6.049 |
| Total | 70.789 | 75.285 | 73.589 |
| Exports | Exports | Exports | |
| 2015/16 | 2015/16 | 2014/15 | |
| 21-Jul | 18-Jun | ||
| All Wheat | 21 | 22.3 | 23 |
| Durum | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5 |
| Barley | 2 | 2.2 | 2.25 |
| Corn | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.45 |
| Oats | 2.1 | 2.225 | 2.325 |
| Canola | 7.6 | 8 | 9.2 |
| Flaxseed | 0.825 | 0.825 | 0.715 |
| Soybeans | 4 | 3.7 | 4.2 |
| Total | 38.335 | 40.08 | 42.235 |
| Domestic use | Domestic use | Domestic use | |
| 2015/16 | 2015/16 | 2014/15 | |
| 21-Jul | 18-Jun | ||
| All Wheat | 8.565 | 9.255 | 10.003 |
| Durum | 0.905 | 0.905 | 0.978 |
| Barley | 5.5 | 5.81 | 5.894 |
| Corn | 13.08 | 12.93 | 12.887 |
| Oats | 0.995 | 1.075 | 1.062 |
| Canola | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.918 |
| Flaxseed | 0.085 | 0.08 | 0.126 |
| Soybeans | 2.075 | 2.075 | 2.144 |
| Total | 37.852 | 38.953 | 40.284 |
| End stocks | End stocks | End stocks | |
| 2015/16 | 2015/16 | 2014/15 | |
| 21-Jul | 18-Jun | ||
| All Wheat | 4.3 | 4.9 | 6.7 |
| Durum | 0.8 | 1 | 1 |
| Barley | 0.5 | 0.95 | 1 |
| Corn | 1 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Oats | 0.7 | 1.05 | 0.575 |
| Canola | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.95 |
| Flaxseed | 0.15 | 0.125 | 0.1 |
| Soybeans | 0.275 | 0.225 | 0.3 |
| Total | 7.465 | 8.995 | 11.168 |
