A new study warns that North America’s reprieve from the effects of global warming on wheat and corn production can’t last forever.
The study,Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980,evaluated 30 years of climate data and crop yields.
It was published recently in the magazineScience.
The study took into account the benefits of technology, which boosted overall yields over the time period.
However, the researchers, led by David Lobell of Stanford University, determined that global yields of corn and wheat are six and four percent lower, respectively, than they would have been had no global warming occurred.
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The research determined that northern Mexico, the United States, and Canada have not seen the increased temperatures that have hit agricultural regions in other parts of the world.
Wheat production in Russia, India, and France and corn production in China and Brazil were found to have been the hardest hit by global warming.
Global production of soybeans and rice was not affected in a statistically significant way because losses in some areas were offset by gains in others.
Lobell said that it’s still not known why North America has not seen temperature spikes, but that trend is likely to come to an end.
“It’s safe to say (we) don’t know for sure that it will continue, (but) that most models suggest it will start to warm up.”
He said researchers will need to develop technology to mitigate the future effects of climate change if yields are to continue increasing.
The study also linked climate change to rising food prices, making it among the first studies to do so.
The researchers determined that wheat and corn prices were five percent higher than they would have been had global warming not occurred. This translates into roughly an extra $50 billion a year spent on food worldwide.
Lobell said climate change was not the main reason for price increases.
“It’s going to potentially play a role, but not a dominant role. But even if it’s not a dominant role it’s still, I think, a considerable amount of economic impact.”
