Canola futures have fallen throughout autumn, weighed down by falling crude oil and vegetable oil prices and the latest Statistics Canada report that added close to a million tonnes to the production estimate. Canola production is 18.3 million tonnes according to the Production of Principal Field Crops report, based on a producer survey conducted Oct. […] Read more
D'Arce McMillan
Stories by D'Arce McMillan
Inflation fight nears end but interest rate cuts unlikely
The evidence is mounting that the fight against inflation is being won without pushing major economies into recession. The hoped for “soft landing” appears to be within grasp. Prices are still going up, but the rate of increase has fallen dramatically. It might take a while to reach central banks’ desired goal of two percent, […] Read more
Weather extremes in South America bedevil soybean forecasting
It is hot in Brazil, so hot that pop star Taylor Swift had to postpone concerts in Rio de Janeiro last week, after a first concert where the heat might have contributed to one fan’s death. This event, that occurred as the heat index (accounting for humidity) in the city approached a staggering 58.5 C, […] Read more
Wheat exports running hotter than originally expected
Canadian wheat exports are running ahead of last year’s pace, raising questions about the official forecast that projects full year movement would be down almost 13 percent from last year’s record exports of 20.6 million tonnes. Exports stand at 5.51 million tonnes to the end of week 14 of the crop year, up from 5.12 […] Read more
Energy prices moderate for now, but future is uncertain
Natural gas prices look like they might be moderate this winter, a trend that should help keep nitrogen fertilizer prices more reasonable than they were last winter. Also, crude oil prices last week fell to the lowest levels since the summer on the expectation that demand will be soft in the coming months. More on […] Read more
Russia, China build infrastructure to allow more trade
Recent news that Russian and Chinese companies have signed multi-year agreements to ship billions of dollars of Russian crops by rail to China fit into the narrative that the world is shifting from a multilateral trading environment to one dominated by trading blocs. The combination of disruptions caused by COVID-19, China’s more aggressive foreign policy […] Read more
El Nino in South America will affect likely oilseed prices
North American crops are in the bin after a mostly warm and dry combining season, and market prices are near harvest lows. That means our eyes now turn to South America, where the world’s next big crops are being seeded, to look for issues that might spark a price rebound. The prices of many major […] Read more
Export statistics highlight Asia’s continuing importance
Canada’s grain exports in the crop year that recently ended were strong and the numbers show a similar range of destinations as in recent non-drought years. The numbers also show the primacy of China as a destination for Canadian crops and a concerning drop in the amount of canola exported to Japan. Total bulk shipments […] Read more
August report gives best assessment of canola crop size
Statistics Canada’s August production forecast released Sept. 14 showed mostly only small differences from the July forecast that was issued Aug. 29 and confirmed that dry weather hurt yields leading to a smaller crop than last year. The report showed declines in durum, canola and barley compared to the July report. The spring wheat number […] Read more
Crop prices could change little unless El Nino surprises
We are into harvest in North America and so it is not unusual for crop prices to weaken as deliveries from the combine increase. The question is: are these the seasonal lows and will prices firm into autumn, or could prices fall? There are no issues I see that will force changes to the current […] Read more
