Grain glut,” “ample supply,” “supply pressure”: these phrases are showing up in market reports to describe crop supplies, particularly corn stocks. Corn is important for the whole grain complex because it tends to set the tone for the market. On Feb. 23 Chicago corn futures fell below US$4 a bushel for the first time since […] Read more
D'Arce McMillan
Stories by D'Arce McMillan
Market’s comfort with grain stocks pushes down prices
Canola futures prices, both old crop and new crop, have fallen below $600 per tonne for the first time since December 2020. Corn and soybean futures last week were also the lowest since December 2020. Soy oil and Minneapolis spring wheat were the lowest since spring 2021. Will this price erosion stop? Crop traders appear […] Read more
Europe must find consensus on environmental policy
Many farmers in Europe are fed up and angry and showing it by getting in their tractors to form convoys clogging highways, blocking city centres and ports and demanding changes from their governments and the European Commission. Farmer protests in Europe are not uncommon. In France in particular, there is always an issue that prompts […] Read more
Loonie’s value depends on timing of interest rate declines
Many economists expect central banks will begin winding down interest rates this summer, and that will likely affect currency exchange rates, including the Canadian dollar. One thought circulating among economists and analysts is that because of the surprisingly strong economy in the United States, its central bank, the Federal Reserve, could remain wary of inflation […] Read more
El Nino-La Nina oscillation impact not determinative
El Nino is on its way out and might be gone by the time crops are growing in Western Canada this summer. Some weather models suggest the waters of the southern Pacific could shift into La Nina by the time harvest arrives. I see media posts drawing attention to the decline of El Nino and […] Read more
GM acceptance one step in China’s modernization efforts
China is about to start growing genetically modified crops, and that has me wondering what it will mean for its yields, its self-sufficiency, future crop imports and rural culture. China has long accepted imports of genetically modified crops but did not grow them itself except in pilot tests. China did, however, grow GM cotton. That […] Read more
Too early to say 2024 will be stronger year for hog prices
Canadian pig producers are happy to put 2023 and its financial losses behind them, but will 2024 be any better? It appears producers in Canada and the United States are reducing the size of their breeding herds, which normally would reduce the supply of pigs and pork and support the price. But the January U.S. […] Read more
Brazil showers pause drought worry; canola exports slow
The holidays are over and it’s time to assess what happened in world crop markets while we were focused on turkey, presents and merry making. Judging by crop futures, the trend of prices slowly grinding lower has continued. And looking at Canadian crop exports, the trend of strong wheat shipments but slow canola movement continues. […] Read more
Cattle futures moderate, but prices should remain strong
Cattle futures prices have come off record high levels but should remain strong in 2024 because market-ready cattle supply will be tight. The price level will also be affected by how well the American and Canadian economies do in the coming year and how secure consumers feel. I wrote recently about the signs that inflation […] Read more
Canola struggles from weak veg oil price and falling crude
Canola futures have fallen throughout autumn, weighed down by falling crude oil and vegetable oil prices and the latest Statistics Canada report that added close to a million tonnes to the production estimate. Canola production is 18.3 million tonnes according to the Production of Principal Field Crops report, based on a producer survey conducted Oct. […] Read more
