AM Market Report – July 9, 2025 | The Western Producer

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are trading $9 to $10/tonne lower to start this morning, giving back all and more of Tuesday’s brief bounce gains. Technical chart conditions are breaking down.

Chicago soybeans tried to work higher on corrective buying at points overnight, but have turned back lower this morning…now down 3 to 5 cents/bu. Beans are easing toward a multi-month low as non-threatening US crop conditions applies supply pressure.

Chicago corn futures also tried a hand at corrective buying overnight, but it too cannot maintain gains…now 1 to 2 cents lower this morning. The corn market is into fresh contract lower as improved US crop ratings and forecasts for more benign weather fuel expectations for a bumper harvest.

US wheat markets are also weaker…down 1 to 2 cents.

Traders generally continue to worry that ridiculous Trump tariff disputes with America’s key trading partners may hurt demand for US crops at a time when farmers are increasingly expected to produce large yields.

In Other News

– Cordonnier keeps US corn, bean yields unchanged but could move higher...Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his US corn yield forecast at 180 bu/acre, though he noted if weather remains favorable it could move higher. However, he has a lower bias toward harvested area compared to USDA’s June estimate of 86.774 million acres. Cordonnier said, “With the planted acreage report behind us, it is now all about the weather. July is the most important month for corn pollination and the corn crop entered the month in generally good condition with mostly adequate soil moisture. There were a few hot days to start the month, but the temperatures going forward are expected to be near normal with timely rains. No significant heat is expected. These are nearly ideal conditions for a successful pollination season.”

For US soybeans, Cordonnier kept his yield forecast at 51.5 bu/acre. While he has a neutral bias at this time, yield could move higher if weather remains favorable. Cordonnier said, “Soybeans are not rated quite as good as corn, but that could change with good weather in July and especially August. Soybeans can quickly recuperate after a less-than-ideal month of June if the weather during July cooperates. There were a few hot days to start the month of July, but the temperatures going forward are expected to be near normal with timely rains. No significant heat is expected. These are nearly ideal conditions for any soybeans that need to recuperate.”

– Pulse crop conditions vary across Saskatchewan… MarketsFarm reporter Adam Peleshaty writes that pulse crop conditions in Saskatchewan depend on where you are in the province. Michael Brown, an agronomy manager for the Saskatchewan Pulse Growers specializing in lentils, chickpeas and dry peas, has heard reports of crops affected by both ends of the spectrum when it comes to weather. “It’s quite variable across the province in all pulses. Some areas look quite good. There are areas that have seen heavy rain (where) low spots have drowned out and there are areas that are extremely dry,” Brown said.

Tyce Masich, a crop extension specialist with the province, said pulses in western areas of Saskatchewan are struggling. “Provincially, approximately 60 to 70 per cent of lentils, field peas, and chickpeas are in good to excellent growing conditions, and the remaining 30 to 40 per cent are in fair to poor condition,” Masich said.

“Pulse crops in much of the northwest and southwest regions are struggling due to persistent dry conditions in these areas and some crops in these areas are ahead of normal growth stages. This means that crops are maturing quicker due to stress from dry conditions.”

There is expected to be more pulse acres grown in Saskatchewan this year. In Statistics Canada’s latest estimates released on June 27, the projected areas for chickpeas, lentils and dry peas in Saskatchewan are set to increase modestly compared to last year. However, dry pea acres were trimmed from StatCan’s March estimate.

Brown identified the drivers behind the additional acres, both in terms of economics and agronomics. “Strong market prices played a big part in the increase. Factor in some of the reduced input costs with pulses and the potential net return was attractive to producers,” he said. “We also heard of some pea and lentil acres that are fighting Aphanomyces shifting to chickpeas as they have partial resistance.”

To have good crops this year, moderate temperatures and plenty of rain are needed. “A lot of the province is still teetering between adequate and short for soil moisture and we’ll need some July rains to carry through to harvest,” said Brown.

– SovEcon raises Russian wheat export forecast… SovEcon has raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 2.1 MMT to 42.9 MMT. Wheat exports in the previous season are estimated at 40.8 MMT. The forecast was increased following an upward revision in production estimates and improved competitiveness of Russian wheat. An improved crop outlook led to a revision in the export estimate. In June, SovEcon raised its wheat production forecast by 2.0 MMT to 83.0 MMT due to better crop conditions in the Central region.

Another supporting factor was the improved competitiveness of Russian wheat. In early July, new-crop Russian wheat was trading at US $225–228/tonne FOB, while Bulgarian and Romanian wheat was offered at $230/tonne FOB. Exporters will likely be able to lower FOB prices if needed while maintaining strong margins.

At the same time, Russia may face strong competition at the start of the season from Romania and Bulgaria, where good harvests are expected. Ukraine may also become a more active competitor, as it needs to redirect more wheat to non-EU destinations in 2025/26.

In June, the USDA left its forecast for Russian grain exports in 2025/26 unchanged at 45.0 MMT.

Active wheat exports from the Black Sea region will weigh on global prices. However, early-season sales from Russia are expected to be less aggressive than in 2024/25 due to lower domestic supply.

– Turkey’s wheat, barley imports to soar… Smaller wheat and barley crops are expected in Turkey this year as drier-than-normal weather conditions mean the country will have to increase imports to meet domestic demand, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the USDA. In its latest projection, the FAS forecasts a 15% drop in wheat production year on year to 16.3 MMT, as a slight increase in wheat planted area will not offset the loss in yield.

“Production could fall even lower depending on the extent of the drought damage,” the FAS said. “In the main wheat growing areas of central and southeastern Anatolia there was insufficient rainfall, higher-than-normal winter temperatures, and an unexpected spring frost event that is expected to depress wheat yields on dry (non-irrigated) wheat farms between 15% to 30% compared to last year.”

To account for the expected drop in production, the FAS is ramping up its wheat import forecast to 10.3 MMT in marketing year 2025-26, more than tripling last year’s total of 3.2 MMT. If realized, it would be the highest intake since the 2019-20 season and one of the world’s largest wheat importers.

The agency’s forecast for barley is even more dire, as it projects this year’s output at 5.1 MMT, a 28% decrease from the previous year. “In comparison to wheat, barley is at a higher risk to drought because it is almost all dry farmed,” the FAS said. As a result, Turkey is forecast to import 1.6 MMT of barley, compared to only 150,000 tonnes in 2024-25, the FAS said. It would be the highest import total since 2.8 MMT were imported in 2021-22.

– Trump says he will impose 50% tariff on copper… US President Donald Trump said he will announce a 50% tax on imported copper…adding to the growing list of punishing tariffs that are causing economic dislocation in Canada and around the world. Trump said the tariffs are coming during a cabinet meeting at the White House.

The Trump administration announced a Section 232 investigation over the import of the metal in February. Trump has already imposed Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos, which have been particularly damaging to the Canadian economy, leading to job losses and a drop in exports. Those tariffs take their name from the section of a U.S. trade law that allows the president to impose levies on certain goods that are said to threaten “national security.”

Canada is a major exporter of copper to the US…American data suggest it’s the second-largest foreign supplier after Chile. Canada exported some $9.3 billion worth of copper and copper-based products in 2023 with a majority of that (52%) going to the US China and Japan followed, with 17 and 12 per cent of Canadian exports respectively.

In addition to the Section 232 tariffs, Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on all non-CUSMA compliant goods coming from Canada, with a lower rate on energy and potash, as part of a border-related tariffs regime.

– Canada on Trump’s trade playbook: No rules, just power plays… Tony Keller of The Globe and Mail warns Canada that Trump’s hardball tariffs signal the end of win-win deals and a new era of “I win, you lose”…with Canada next in line. Keller said Trump is “replacing international trade law with sketches on the back of a wet cocktail napkin.” The new approach is all about raw leverage and punishing tariffs, with little regard for established rules or relationships.

Keller writes that, despite some Canadians’ belief that Prime Minister Mark Carney exaggerated the threat from Trump during the last election, Trump “continues to prove that he really does mean to break eggs, make omelets and eviscerate the rules of global trade.” This, he warns, could hit Canada harder than any other country because of its geographic and economic ties to the United States.

Keller warns, “International trade law is being rewritten with sketches on the back of a wet cocktail napkin… Nobody can say for sure how far Mr. Trump will go. But there’s no denying which way his compass is pointing.”

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 165.60 points lower on Tuesday to settle at 44,240.76, while the S&P 500 Index was down 4.46 points at 6,225.52. Early Wednesday, September Dow Jones futures are up 181 points.

US and European stock markets indexes are higher this morning as investors appear to be shrugging off US President Donald Trump’s latest, shifting trade salvos. Trump yesterday said he plans to announce 50% tariffs on copper soon. He also said he plans to announce tariffs on imported semiconductor and pharmaceuticals, saying the rate for medicines could reach 200%, but that he would give drugmakers about one year “to get their act together.”

TSX stock index futures are following sentiment higher this morning after Canada’s main stock index closed lower yesterday, weighed down by mining shares.

“The delay in the imposition of new tariffs on some of the US’s major trading partners to Aug. 1 has simultaneously kicked the proverbial can down the road and supported the notion that the loftier tariff rates are a negotiating ploy,” Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a note. “As a result, the markets have been left hanging, and waiting for a stronger catalyst to drive the next move.”

The September US Dollar Index is down 0.007 at 97.165. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 73.04 US cents.

August crude oil futures are up $0.29 at US $68.04/barrel. Oil prices softening.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 3 to 5 cents/bu lower this morning. Futures posted 3 to 10 cent losses across most contracts on Tuesday. Nov bean futures are down 4.5 cents this morning at $10.13/bu, perilously flirting with important chart support around the $10.15 to $10.20 region…threatening a break below the 3-month trading range unless it bounces back quickly.

Soymeal futures are holding steady this morning after dipped $1 to $2/ton yesterday. Soyoil futures are selling down 50 to 54 points this morning after a very modest edging up 4 to 18 points on Tuesday.

The USDA’s US national crop rating held at 66% good to excellent for the third week in a row and development weather is favorable in much of the region.

Commodities in general are waiting for any new news on US tariffs and trade deals…with US soybean traders particularly interested in any new developments with China. But nothing happen on that front yet as China has turned more to Brazil to fulfill its immediate bean needs.

Chicago corn futures are pressing fresh contract lows with 1 to 2 cent/bu declines this morning. The corn market closed Tuesday’s session with contracts down 5 to 7 cents, with September now below the $4 mark.

The central US Corn Belt is expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain this week, with the western half of the US Plains and parts of the eastern Corn Belt seeing lighter totals. USDA crop condition rate is a quite strong 74% good/excellent.

Demand for US corn remains very strong, but the market focus remains squarely on the prospect of a potentially all-time large US corn crop this year which may exceed 16 billion bu for the first time ever.

The trade is also watching harvest activity in Argentina and Brazil, which heightens competition on the export market.

US wheat markets are weaker this morning…down 1 to 2 cents. The US wheat complex closed mostly lower across the three markets on Tuesday…spring wheat saw losses of 6 to 8 cents at the close.

Northern Hemisphere winter wheat harvest pressure has been the main feature pressuring wheat markets. But for spring wheat, forecasts are now showing less rainfall across the northern US Plains and Canadian Prairies as dryness conditions persist in many areas.

The trade is also monitoring harvest, planting, and/or development weather in Argentina, Australia, China, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. The USDA will release updated supply, demand, and production numbers, including a new look at US wheat on Friday (July 11).

SovEcon raised its export estimate for Russia by 2.1 MMT to 42.9 MMT.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures closed higher on Tuesday, taking back a small portion of the previous day’s heavy losses. Canola was caught in the downdraft on Monday as Chicago crop futures posted steep declines amid mostly good US weather and rising corn and soybean production ideas.

Corn and soybean markets remained under pressure yesterday, but canola was able to rally thanks to some modest strength in soyoil and crude oil, as well as bargain-hunting. European rapeseed and palm oil were also higher, while losses in the Canadian dollar underpinned canola as well.

Canadian production uncertainty remains a supportive influence for canola. Although some rain fell in the Prairies over the weekend, many areas are still too dry or only getting by on just-in-time showers.

November canola gained $7.30 yesterday to close at $704.10/tonne, and January was up $7.70 at $712.40.

For today… canola future are selling-off this morning…dropping $9 to $10/tonne now into overnight session lows. Nov canola is down $10 at $694.10/tonne…and once again testing its 50-day moving average ($693). MACD and Stochastics momentum indicators are suggestive of downward momentum building. The upward trendline off the March lower is being threatened.

Not a lot of fresh news, with canola tending to follow a generally bearish bias emanating from US grain/oilseed markets. Malaysian palm oil futures have been trending higher the past couple of weeks, but is near unchanged this morning. But EU rapeseed futures are weak and trending lower since peaking June 20.

There are dryness concerns regarding Prairie canola production, but not enough yet to re-spire sustained buying intensity in the market. But with roughly half of the Canadian Prairies missing out on recent rains, the situation is worrying amid droughty conditions during the critical flowering stage.

To access the latest futures prices, visit our Markets Futures Prices page.