It will be at least six months, and probably more, before the American border is forced open again for Prince Edward Island potatoes, federal officials estimate.
This week, Canada is expected to start pressing for a scientific panel, established under the North American Free Trade Agreement, to hear evidence about Canada’s efforts to isolate the potato wart virus that led to the border closing.
Canadian and industry officials are convinced the scientific evidence is on their side and that the Americans are engaging in protectionist politics.
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They have also decided the United States is not prepared to voluntarily lift the embargo, despite direct lobbying by the prime minister, various ministers, ambassadors and government officials.
“Those discussions now seem to suggest that the Americans are entrenched,” Claudio Valle from the foreign affairs and trade department told the House of Commons agriculture committee on March 27.
“We will be putting forward one last point of view to them, basically giving them our bottom line. If we don’t get a resolution within this week, then clearly we will be moving to a more formal approach.”
He said a scientific panel could conclude its work by the fall, if the Americans co-operate. A formal NAFTA dispute settlement panel would drag into next winter.
Either way, the P.E.I. potato industry heads into spring planting without a clear idea whether its largest export market will be open or closed next fall.
In the meantime, Ottawa has made it clear there will be no more compensation than the $14.1 million in special payments to move surplus potatoes to fertilizer compost and to send other potatoes to Canadian food banks.
Federal officials said any other compensation must come from existing safety net programs. They estimated the total federal and provincial compensation available will total $50 million.
“The practice has been not to compensate on other people’s trade actions,” deputy agriculture minister Samy Watson told the committee.
The government role is to try to end trade disputes and restore access.
“Individuals that are affected are dealt with with internal support programs,” he said.
The federal answers left some MPs unhappy.
Liberal and opposition MPs complained that compensation has been too little, reaction against the Americans has been too slow and P.E.I farmers have paid too high a price for an unjustified American trade embargo.
P.E.I. Liberal Wayne Easter, who has been critical of Agriculture Canada’s reaction to the issue, suggested Canada should retaliate by being tougher at the border with American imports.
